2024 POLL: Most Dem and GOP voters think they have a better chance at presidency without Biden or Trump

A Marist Poll national survey conducted after the 2022 midterm elections found the majority of voters — Republicans, Democrats and independents leaning toward one of the parties — believe their party would have a better chance at securing the presidency in 2024 if President Biden and former President Trump are not nominees.

According to the poll, 52% of Republicans said the GOP would have a better chance of winning the next presidential election if someone other than Trump is the nominee, while 37% still believe Trump is the best candidate for the job. About 11% where undecided.

Among Republican-leaning independents, 30% think Trump is the GOP’s best nominee, while 60% would like to see someone else leading the party.

The results, coming just days after Trump announced he will make a third bid for the presidency, reveal a drastic change from an October Marist survey that found 50% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents thought Trump was their party’s best chance at the presidency in 2024. Only 35% preferred someone else as the GOP nominee in that poll.

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Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, right, could be Trump's toughest challenger should he choose to run in 2024.

Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, right, could be Trump’s toughest challenger should he choose to run in 2024. (Joe Raedle, Giorgio Viera/AFP)

The shift comes after the GOP had a less successful midterm election than expected, prompting questions over what role Trump’s involvement played in key losses. Some have suggested Gov. Ron DeSantis would be the best candidate to lead the Republican Party to victory in 2024. DeSantis has not made any announcements regarding a bid for the presidency.

Some potential Republican contenders who may be lining up to take on Trump in 2024 include former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

About 44% of Democrats would like to see Biden seek another term in office, while 46% think the Democrats’ best opportunity to remain in power would be with a new nominee, according to the Marist Poll. A large majority of Democrat-leaning independents — 71% — said the party should have new representation in 2024, with only 23% backing Biden in a 2024 run.    

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The total number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents pushing for Biden to be the 2024 nominee rose to 38%, increasing two points from an October poll.

The president saw a 10-point increase among individuals who wish to see someone else to run in his place, rising to 54% from 44% in the October survey. The hike comes from the 20% of respondents who were unsure whether they wanted to see Biden as the Democratic nominee in the October poll.

Concerns have been raised over Biden's age and if he will be fit to seek re-election in 2024. The Democratic president turns 80 Nov. 21.

Concerns have been raised over Biden’s age and if he will be fit to seek re-election in 2024. The Democratic president turns 80 Nov. 21. (Alex Brandon)

According to the poll, 54% of respondents disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, up six points from an October poll that found the president had a 49% job disapproval rating.

Among independent voters, 55% disapprove of how Biden is handling his position as president.

Inflation is the top priority to the majority of respondents as a new Congress is seated. According to the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, inflation rose to 7.7% in October, easing slightly from 8.2% the month before.

Among Democratic voters, 20% said the most pressing issue is preserving democracy, followed by 17% who felt the focus should be on gun policy and only 11% who said inflation.

Among GOP voters, 47% agreed that inflation was the issue of top concern, and 24% said the issue of immigration deserved the most attention. The issue of top concern to 35% of independent voters was inflation, followed by 16% who said preserving democracy and 15% who think climate change should be of high priority in Congress. Abortion was not among the top three issues of concern to any party.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden 

Donald Trump and Joe Biden  (Patrick Semansky)

The majority of respondents — 58% — think there should be an age limit on the presidency, though an exact age was not specified in the poll.

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The Marist survey was conducted form Nov. 14-16. The margin of error among Democrat and Democratic-leaning independents sits at plus or minus 6.5 percentage points, while the margin of error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents came to 6.9 percentage points.

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