Yes, all three Democrats won reelection in 2018, so they have proven their electoral mettle. But that was during a midterm cycle with an unpopular Republican in the White House. Joe Biden lost all three states in 2020, and, given the states’ partisan bent, it’s likely that the Democratic nominee for president next year will lose all three states again in 2024.
Republicans also have other Senate opportunities in very competitive states currently held by Democrats, including Wisconsin (Sen. Tammy Baldwin), Nevada (Sen. Jacky Rosen), Pennsylvania (Sen. Bob Casey) and Michigan (Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring, creating an open seat).
Of course, having opportunities is not the same thing as winning seats, as the GOP found out last year. But at this very early point in the 2023-24 cycle, Republicans seem well positioned to net at least two Senate seats, which would give them control of the Senate in 2025.
But if 2024 looks like a good opportunity for the GOP to flip the Senate, it also looks like a possible Democratic opportunity to win back the House after just two years of Republican control.
Democrats need to net just five House districts to win back control of the chamber, and, unlike in the Senate, Republicans will be defending more Biden districts than Democrats are defending Trump districts. Eighteen Republicans currently sit in districts carried by Biden, while only five Democrats sit in districts carried by Trump in 2020.
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