As former President Donald Trump potentially prepares to launch a presidential bid for 2024, a new CNN/SSRS poll finds that while a majority of Republicans want the ex-president to lead the GOP, they’re evenly divided on whether having him at the top of the ticket will help the party retake the White House.
The poll, conducted August 3 to September 7 among 2,119 U.S. adults, found 63% of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents believe Trump should lead the party, versus 37% who say he shouldn’t.
Only 51% believe the party has a “better chance of retaking the presidency if Trump is the nominee,” however, while 49% say a different candidate would be better.
That share is down from 78% who said in March 2019 that the party would have an advantage with Trump in the 2020 election.
Support for Trump is highest among Republicans without a college degree (69% believe he should lead the party), conservatives (72%) and self-identified Republicans (71%), while it’s lower among those with a college degree (49%), moderates (49%) and Republican-leaning Independents (51%).
Approximately 60% say support for Trump and a belief that he won the 2020 election—which there is no evidence to support—“are at least a somewhat important part of what being a Republican means to them.”
More Republicans place importance on opposing Democratic policies (69%), supporting GOP politicians in Congress (81%), holding conservative values (85%) and wanting the federal government to have less power (86%), however.
The poll also looked at the midterm elections in 2022, which found 45% of registered voters are likely to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate and 44% for the GOP candidate. The poll found 28% are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in 2022—up from 18% who said the same in 2017 about the 2018 midterms—with Republicans slightly more enthusiastic (30% extremely enthusiastic versus 26% for Democrats).
Trump has been hinting at a 2024 run and laying the groundwork for it in recent weeks, scheduling rallies in key states like Iowa and Florida and hiring staffers for his political action committee in Iowa. Trump advisor Jason Miller said the chances of the ex-president running are “between 99 and 100 percent,” and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) recently claimed Trump was “about ready to announce” a run. Trump himself appeared to hint at a run on Saturday when he visited a police station in New York City. “Oh, that’s a tough question,” Trump jokingly said in response to a question about whether he’d run in 2024. “Actually, for me it’s an easy question.” Republicans’ enthusiasm for Trump running doesn’t extend to Americans overall, with 60% of respondents in a recent Quinnipiac poll believing Trump’s potential 2024 bid would be “bad for the country.” The ex-president could still have a chance at retaking the White House, however, as an Emerson College poll conducted August 30 – September 1 found 47% of respondents favored Trump in a potential 2024 matchup against President Joe Biden, versus 46% who would vote for Biden.
When Will Trump Answer the Big 2024 Question? (New York Times)