Gov. Ron DeSantis enters 2022 riding high in his re-election bid, so much so that one prominent prediction market has all but called the race.
The PredictIt platform highlighted an erosion of what little investor confidence exists in the three major Democratic candidates: Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Sen. Annette Taddeo.
DeSantis is trading at 85 cents on the platform Friday, indicating he has an 85% chance of winning in November. Fried is trading at just 8 cents, with Crist at 6 cents and Taddeo at 3 cents.
“Overall Trend: This is DeSantis’ race to lose,” PredictIt asserted.
“Case in point, over the past 90 days, DeSantis’ contract has gone from 78¢ to 85¢, while the two Democrat favorites have seen their contracts fall 4¢ — for Fried — and 7¢ — for Crist. There is also the small matter of money. DeSantis has more money on hand, at least $68 million, than he raised in the entirety of his 2018 campaign. His would-be Democrat competitors have $7.5 million among the three of them,” the analysis continued.
The analysis explicitly credited DeSantis and former President Donald Trump with transforming the political landscape in the state. “For the first time in modern history, there are more active registered Republican voters in the state than Democrats — a shift in political winds that began with Trump’s presidency and continued under DeSantis.”
The Governor’s key innovation, the analysis continued, may have been through his stewardship of pandemic politics.
“DeSantis has built a national profile throughout the pandemic, railing against restrictions, signing executive orders that banned private businesses from implementing coronavirus-related mandates and taken on the White House on more than one occasion. His management of Florida — keeping businesses and schools open — has created a stark contrast with other Democrat governors, who might also harbor national ambitions,” the analysis asserted.
DeSantis enjoys the prerogatives of incumbency, including a budget laden with federal stimulus funds and a Legislature willing to give him key wins between now and March. These tailwinds and the earned media they will create give the Governor one more advantage, and reinforce the belief among neutral investors that DeSantis can be defeated this November.