With help from Marissa Martinez
Democrats across the country are making the fall of Roe v. Wade a centerpiece of their midterm campaigns — except in one of the most important swing regions in the battle for the House.
Three high-profile South Texas House races have become referenda on whether the GOP can continue recent gains among Latino voters, who have historically voted for Democrats in the area. The GOP already nabbed one South Texas seat in Congress after Mayra Flores won her special election in June, and Republicans are looking to add Cassy Garcia and Monica De La Cruz to their ranks, too. And abortion isn’t playing the same role in these campaigns as it is elsewhere in the country.
The largely Hispanic region has a muddled relationship with abortion rights. While many people may personally be religious, socially conservative and against abortion, both parties acknowledge that doesn’t automatically translate to Republican votes — after all, parts of South Texas have been Democratic strongholds for decades. A relatively weak health care infrastructure in the region — particularly gynecologists — further complicates the issue.
“I’m not concerned with the Dobbs decision affecting Republican candidates in South Texas at all,” said Abraham Enriquez, founder of Bienvenido US, an organization dedicated to engaging conservative Latinos. “I think, if anything, the Dobbs decision has given an opportunity for voters in South Texas to be more educated and have a more sophisticated understanding on what it is to be pro-life.”
Though abortion is “clearly on the ballot” again come November, said Texas Democrats Chair Gilberto Hinojosa, in South Texas, it may not be the wedge issue others predicted it would be. While the issue is important for women there, it’s secondary to others like education, inflation and other classic “kitchen table” issues, he said.
Hinojosa pointed to Rep. Henry Cuellar’s primary win over attorney Jessica Cisneros, who twice campaigned against him specifically on his anti-abortion beliefs and previous voting pattern. In a May runoff, Cuellar eked out a win over Cisneros by less than 300 votes. His extensive experience in Congress won voters over in the end, he said.
Take the example of TX-15, too: There’s a big policy gap between the anti-abortion De La Cruz and pro-abortion rights Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo. But neither has run broadcast advertisements on the issue — pro-De La Cruz spots have focused on hitting Vallejo over immigration and inflation, while Vallejo’s current airing ad highlights her working-class background.
Unlike in Texas’ statewide races, congressional hopefuls on both sides have largely avoided abortion altogether in advertising, save for a bilingual House Majority PAC ad that connects Flores to an “extreme abortion law” with no exceptions, among other views.
Days until the general election: 43
Days until the 2022 World Cup: 55
Days until the 2024 election: 771
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— ABC News/Washington Post poll: “In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split.”
ABORTION POLITICS — “Abortion upends the battle for a dozen key governorships,” by POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro and Megan Messerly: “The way candidates are running on [abortion] could hardly be more polarized: Democrats are going all in. Republicans want to change the topic. … Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Democratic gubernatorial candidates and outside groups have spent nearly $34 million on television ads that mention abortion, according to data compiled by the ad tracking firm AdImpact. Republican gubernatorial candidates, by contrast, have collectively spent around $1.1 million on TV ads mentioning abortion. Instead, they’re focusing on issues such as the economy or crime, arguing Democrats are ignoring the issues they believe voters care about the most.”
— “Arizona judge rules 19th century abortion ban can take effect,” by POLITICO’s Megan Messerly: “An Arizona judge ruled Friday that a state law prohibiting nearly all abortions can take effect, forcing clinics in the state to immediately stop offering the procedure.”
— “Tim Michels now says he would back legislation allowing abortions in case of rape and incest despite decades of opposition,” by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Molly Beck: “Michels, who is narrowly trailing Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers in recent polling, told conservative radio show host Dan O’Donnell on Friday he would sign a bill creating such exceptions to the state’s 1849 law that bans all abortions unless the mother’s life is in danger. The reversal comes seven weeks before voters go to the polls to choose between Michels and Evers and as statewide polling show the vast majority of Wisconsinites support legal abortions for women who become pregnant after being raped or as a result of incest.”
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— Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro’s new spot against gubernatorial opponent Doug Mastriano highlights a “bizarre manifesto” the Republican wrote calling for “macho-warrior spirit” to save the nation from a coming storm of political correctness.
— “Trump and DeSantis: Once allies, now in simmering rivalry with 2024 nearing,” by the Washington Post’s Hannah Knowles and Josh Dawsey: “The former president tracks DeSantis’s public appearances and polling numbers, according to his advisers … He has also soured on DeSantis, repeatedly criticizing him and telling advisers: ‘I made him.’ … Some Trump donors have said that, after donating to DeSantis, they received displeased phone calls from Trump urging them to stop supporting the governor and saying he may run against Trump, according to a person who works with donors.”
CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Italian voters rewarded Giorgia Meloni’s euroskeptic party with neo-fascist roots, propelling the country toward what likely would be its first far-right-led government since World War II, based on partial results Monday from the election for Parliament.” — Associated Press
