22 toss-up House races to watch on election night

Election Day is here, and tens of millions of Americans are now heading to the polls across the country.

Their votes will be the deciding factor in 22 toss-up House races that will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the chamber for the next two years.

Beneath the surface, the battle for the gavel is getting more expensive. House candidates have spent more than $3 billion on their races so far, concentrated in roughly 40 battleground districts.

Arizona

Arizona’s 1st District covers a northeast chunk of Maricopa and is represented by Republican Rep. David Schweikert, who has served Arizona in Congress since 2011. Biden won the area he represents by 1.5 points in the last presidential election (Dave’s Redistricting), making this an ultra-competitive race. Schweikert is up against Democrat and former state Rep. Amish Shah. It’s a Toss-up on the Power Rankings.

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Arizona’s 6th District is tucked away in the southeast corner of the state. The 6th District is represented by freshman GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. Biden won this area by an even thinner margin in 2020 — just 0.1 percentage points — making it another closely watched race. Ciscomani is running against Kirsten Engel, another Democratic former state representative. It’s also a Toss-up.

California

California’s 22nd District is home to Rep. David Valadao, one of two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. He kept this district on a three-point margin in the midterms, but Biden won it by 13 points in the last presidential election. Valadao’s strong centrist brand keeps this race, against former assemblyman Rudy Salas, at Toss Up this cycle.

California’s 41st District is represented by Republican Ken Calvert, who has served in the House since 1993. He won his most recent race by under five points, and this year, he’ll face the same competitor: former federal prosecutor and Democrat Will Rollins. This race is a Toss Up.

California’s 45th District went to President Biden by six points last cycle; its heavy and right-leaning Asian American population makes it highly competitive. Incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democratic lawyer Derek Tran in this district, which includes parts of Los Angeles. It moved to Toss Up last month.

Colorado

Colorado’s 8th District starts in rural Weld County, where Trump won by 18 points in 2020. But the farther down you go, the more suburban it becomes. Strong Democratic turnout in Adams County, which Biden won by 16 points, gave Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo her first win in 2022. This time, the incumbent is up against Republican state politician Gabe Evans. This is a toss-up race.

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Iowa

Iowa’s 1st District went to second-term GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by six votes in 2020, and while redistricting gave her a more comfortable win in the midterms, she remains vulnerable in the Davenport and Iowa City district. Former state Rep. Christina Bohannan is the Democrat candidate. It’s a toss-up in the Power Rankings.

Maine

Maine’s 2nd District sees Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden running as one of five Democrats in districts Trump won in the last presidential election (Golden won by 6 points). The former Marine made headlines this year when he said he “didn’t know” whether he would vote for Biden again and was one of the first Democrats to question Biden’s mental fitness. This time, he’s up against Maine State Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault, who says he wants “more balance and less extremism” in politics. This race is a Power Rankings toss-up.

Michigan

Michigan’s 7th District sees Democrat Elissa Slotkin vacating this south central Michigan district, which she flipped by a 5.4-point margin in the midterms. This year, it’s a battle between two former state senators — Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.

Michigan’s 8th District is also without an incumbent. Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring after 12 years in the House, making this a race between Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge. The seat includes Flint and the Tri-Cities area, so winning the working-class vote will be critical. It’s also a toss-up on the Power Rankings.

North Carolina

North Carolina’s 1st District saw Democratic Rep. Don Davis win this open seat in the midterms by under five points. This year, he’s up against Army veteran Laurie Buckhout for this northeastern district with a high proportion of Black voters. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.