3 Battleground Senate Democrats Retire—What Does It Mean for 2026?

Three long-serving Democratic incumbents have announced that their current term will be their last, raising questions about the potential outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.

Since President Donald Trump and the Republicans took a trifecta in Washington in November, Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) have announced their retirements.

Each seat lies in states decided by less than five points in 2024, making them ripe for either party to take.

Some see the retirement of these Democrats as a sign that Republicans are primed to increase their current 53-seat majority in the Senate.

Matt Johnston, a Republican strategist, told The Epoch Times that Republicans see the retirements as a sign of GOP surging.

“People retiring … is usually an indicator that they feel like that they’re in for a fight, and they just don’t have the fight left in them,” Johnston said.

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Other experts gave alternate appraisals, with many suggesting it’s too early to say anything for sure.

Here’s what to know about the retirements, and what they could mean for the 2026 midterm elections.

New Hampshire

The Granite State has long been renowned for its left-leaning independent streak.

In 2024, Republicans won a trifecta led by Gov. Kelly Ayotte. But in the same contest, Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump by a 2.78 percent margin.

A senator since 2009, Shaheen was governor of New Hampshire from 1997 to 2003. In 2020, she won reelection by around 16 points, becoming the first New Hampshire Democrat ever elected to three full Senate terms.

Her retirement means Republicans could be poised to take a seat in New Hampshire’s Senate delegation for the first time since 2016.

Richard Groper, a political science professor at California State University, told The Epoch Times that Republicans’ best bet would be to run former Gov. Chris Sununu, who left office in January.

“New Hampshire is a wild card, because the Granite State has always been a purple state: It’s kind of lean blue, but they have a red governor,” Groper said. “So if Sununu does run, he has great name recognition, and that could be hard to overcome for Democrats.”

Sununu has been ambiguous about his intentions on that front.

Possible candidates for the Democrats include Reps. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.), whose husband, Jake Sullivan, was President Joe Biden’s national security adviser.

Despite the state being purple, taking New Hampshire would still be a significant challenge for Republicans.

Ayotte was the state’s last Republican senator, being unseated by Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.)—also a former governor of the state—in a nail-biter 0.14 percent election in 2016. In 2022, however, Hassan handily defeated her Republican challenger by nearly 10 points.

Still, Republicans view Shaheen’s seat as a potential route to expand their lead in the Senate, particularly if Sununu seeks the post.

Minnesota

Minnesota is best renowned politically for its long-running Democratic voting streak, maintained at the presidential level since 1972.

Minnesotans have largely favored Democrats at the Senate level as well, electing only five Republicans to the upper chamber since 1952. In the 21st century, only one Republican has served a full term as Minnesota’s senator.

Nevertheless, there are indicators that Minnesota may be becoming a battleground state, particularly as two of the three past presidential elections there have been decided by less than 5 percent.

Thus, Republicans have increasingly set their sights on the state amid the Rust Belt’s larger rightward shift.

Smith, then serving as Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, was appointed to replace Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) after his resignation in 2018, and was reelected by a 5.3 percent margin in 2020.

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former Minnesota Senate Minority Leader Melisa López Franzen have announced runs under the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), a regional form of the national party. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and former NBA player Royce White are running as Republicans.

Dan Meyers, an associate politics professor at the University of Minnesota, told The Epoch Times that he thinks Democrats will hold the seat this cycle.

“It is notable that several prominent DFLers—[including Flanagan], Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.)—have either already declared or expressed interest, while all of the state’s Republican members of Congress have ruled out running,” Meyers said.

Johnston also agreed that flipping Minnesota this cycle would be “an uphill battle,” but said, “Anything’s possible.”

Michigan

While Michigan has historically been perceived as the most liberal of the Rust Belt trio—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—experts believe the state may be Republicans’ best hope for a flip in 2026.

Peters, who’s long marketed himself as an advocate for the working class in Michigan, announced his retirement on Jan. 28.

Joshua Koss, a politics professor at Eastern Michigan University, said that Peters’s retirement “is the biggest deal in my mind.”

“Michigan has been pretty firmly cemented as a swing state across the past several cycles at the presidential level, and while Republicans haven’t held a Senate seat from the state since … 2000, an open seat could provide them an opportunity to pick up that seat,” Koss said.

For one, even if Democrats hold the seat, Peters’s retirement means far more resources will be needed in the state.

Additionally, Peters is currently the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Senate Democrats’ campaign arm—potentially further impacting the outcome of the 2026 midterms at the Senate level.

Johnston indicated Republicans are most optimistic here, citing the lack of high-profile Democratic contenders so far.

Currently, possible candidates include Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Mich.), Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.).

On the GOP side, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is expected to announce a run after narrowly losing the 2024 Senate race to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), while a series of other contenders are also expected to throw their hats in the ring.

Shape of the 2026 Race

Whatever happens, these Democratic retirements potentially create openings for Republicans that didn’t exist before.

The 2026 map was already expected to be favorable to Republicans, with most GOP seats lying in safely red districts.

Prior to the announced retirements, Peters’s Michigan seat was already seen as a top GOP target, alongside Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) seat in the Peach State.

Only two Republicans—Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)—are likely to face significant battles for their seats.

Ultimately, experts say that it’s too early to predict the outcomes of these races, whose results will depend in large part on the political environment in 2026.

Still, several experts pointed out that historical trends could work against Republicans, as the party in power tends to lose seats during the midterms.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.