Arms Suspension Signals Biden’s Deepening Frustration With Netanyahu

News Analysis

President Joe Biden is growing increasingly frustrated with the Israeli government’s failure to address U.S. concerns regarding a major operation in Rafah, as evidenced by his recent threat to withhold weapon shipments to the Jewish state.

For the first time, President Biden declared that should Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed to invade Rafah, the United States would not “supply the weapons and artillery shells.”

“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” President Biden told CNN host Erin Burnett in a rare sit-down interview on May 8.

Mr. Netanyahu retaliated the next day with a video message in which he pledged to fight Hamas alone.

“If we have to stand alone, we will stand alone,” Mr. Netanyahu said.

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While both leaders have traded barbs in the past over Israel’s operation in Gaza, it appears that this latest exchange has taken their feud to a new level.

“A political signal of frustration and unhappiness” is how Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East analyst, interprets President Biden’s recent ultimatum.

In a recent post on X, he speculated that the president might be transitioning from his “passive-aggressive” stance on Israel over the past six months to a more aggressive one.

Since Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that he would launch a military campaign there to destroy the terrorist group.

President Biden, on the other hand, has repeatedly expressed concerns that a large-scale military operation in Rafah could risk harming civilians, as more than 1 million Palestinians have packed in the city over the past seven months of fighting.

According to some observers, the current tension signals the end of the “bear hug” era between President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu, also known as “Bibi.”

‘Hug Bibi Tight’

President Biden and his team were caught off guard when the terror group Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 civilians, including more than 30 Americans.

Shortly after the attack, President Biden traveled to the Middle East, finding himself in the middle of a war zone.

His bear hug for Mr. Netanyahu upon his arrival in Tel Aviv on Oct. 18 became one of the most talked-about moments of the crisis, with some seeing it as a new chapter in the relationship between the two leaders.

President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu have known each other for decades.

When they first met, Joe Biden was a junior senator in his early 40s, while Mr. Netanyahu was a new diplomat nearly a decade younger.

However, their relationship hasn’t always been smooth.

Atlantic reporter Franklin Foer explains this complex relationship in his book, “The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future,” released in Sept. 2023.

“Did you ever imagine we’d be sitting where we are today?” President Biden asked the Israeli leader during a phone call shortly after assuming office in 2021, according to the book.

The book details how the president approached Mr. Netanyahu in May of that year, following the outbreak of an 11-day Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

President Biden told his advisers that he would wait to build trust with Mr. Netanyahu, knowing from previous experience that “criticism would merely push ‘Bibi’ away.”

“In his view, the quickest way to end the conflict was to stand squarely with Israel, to smother Netanyahu with love,” the book explained.

“Then, at the right moment, Biden said that he would take advantage of the trust he had deposited in the bank. Only then would he tell Bibi to wind the war down. But in the meantime, he was going to hug Bibi tight.”

It appears that President Biden’s strategy of exercising patience with Mr. Netanyahu reached its breaking point, as evidenced by his CNN interview.

“I made it clear,” President Biden said. “If they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons.”

“It’s just wrong,” he added.

What’s Next?

Axios first reported on May 5, citing two anonymous Israeli officials, that the Biden administration had halted supply of certain munitions the week before.

The Biden officials, however, declined to confirm the report for several days.

As a result, some media outlets speculated that the White House deliberately avoided making any announcement about the decision before President Biden’s long-planned Holocaust remembrance address.

President Biden strongly condemned the “ferocious surge” in anti-Semitism on college campuses and beyond during that speech on May 7.

“It’s absolutely despicable, and it must stop,” he said.

The next day, Secretary Austin confirmed that the Biden administration had delayed the delivery of some munitions to Israel as it reviewed their use against civilians in Gaza.

“We are currently reviewing some near-term security assistance shipments in the context of the unfolding events in Rafah,” Mr. Austin said at a Senate hearing.

The operation Israel has conducted so far has been limited. Israel has asserted that terrorist activities are being conducted from the Palestinian side of the Rafah border. Hence, border control holds significant strategic value.

The Rafah crossing also serves as a vital gateway for humanitarian aid between Gaza and Egypt.

Israel has been forthright about its intention to launch a significant military operation in Rafah for months, but the United States has consistently opposed it.

“We have made quite clear we don’t want to see it happen. I should say we do continue to engage with Israel about other options that they can pursue,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said during a press briefing on May 9.

White House spokesman John Kirby tried to clarify the president’s comments during a call with reporters, implying that the public has learned what he has been telling Mr. Netanyahu privately for weeks.

“The president and his team have been clear for several weeks that we do not support a major ground operation in Rafah,” Mr. Kirby said on May 9, adding that the president “has communicated that repeatedly and straightforwardly” to Mr. Netanyahu.

It’s still unclear how the U.S. decision will impact Israel’s operation in Rafah and the sentiment of the Jewish community in the United States.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, believes that Biden’s recent statement emboldens Hamas and Iran and puts U.S. allies in the Middle East at risk.

“There are conflicting messages and objectives in U.S. policy. Many Israelis see it this way,” he told The Epoch Times.

However, Mr. Melamed believes that there remains tactical maneuvering space for Israel when it comes to its operations in Rafah.

“I don’t know if it’s going to impact Israel’s determination to operate in Rafah. In fact, in the last couple of hours, Israel reportedly expanded its operation,” he said.

He did, however, note that Israel’s operations plan will be slower and more deliberate going forward, as opposed to the “shock and awe” approach used earlier in the war.

Mr. Melamed noted that Israel will likely avoid further conflict with the Biden administration by adopting this new strategy.

Meanwhile, some Jewish groups in the United States have expressed disappointment with the U.S. decision to halt arms shipments to Israel.

Daniel Rosen, president of the American Jewish Congress, issued a statement, calling the decision “deeply concerning.”

“It risks generating a narrative that could exacerbate the rise of anti-Semitism in the United States, providing a source of validation to those who harbor hatred towards Jews and Israel, and empowering Israel’s enemies,” the statement read.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.