Fox News Power Rankings: Harris ticks up and Senate Republicans take charge

September 25, 2024 by updatesite

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Republicans are set to flip the Senate for the first time this cycle in this week’s Fox News Power Rankings. 

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a small post-debate bump, three new toss-up races emerge in the House, and the GOP loses ground on the governor’s map.

Harris comes out stronger from the first debate

Two weeks after their first debate, Harris is up a point and former President Donald Trump is down the same in an average of high-quality polls.

Polling shifts after debates.

If those numbers sound familiar, it is because they match the shifts after the first debate between President Biden and Trump four years ago.

That could be a problem for Republicans. In 2020, Trump did not narrow the polling gap that the first debate created until a stronger showing in the second. As of today, Harris and Trump have not agreed on terms for a rematch.

Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining with independent voters.

The same post-debate poll has Trump down two points among all voters, leaving the former president at 48% and Harris at 50%. A spread like that on election night gives Trump an electoral college advantage.

Further slippage in support for the former president would change that math.

Republicans are poised to control the Senate

Republicans have enjoyed a head start in the Senate from the beginning of this cycle. Their star candidate in Montana is doing more than anyone to get them to the finish line.

Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.

This state has been represented for nearly two decades by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, one of the last rural Democrats, who has leaned on his farming background and gun rights advocacy to exceed expectations in three elections. 

However, Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020, and Tester faces a strong opponent in businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. He has run an efficient, disciplined campaign on the economy and the border. 

That makes Montana a better pickup opportunity for the GOP than Ohio, which does not lean toward Trump as much as its western neighbor and where Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has made missteps on the trail.

That is what keeps this race tight. Tester has more than three times as much cash on hand as Sheehy, giving the Democrat spending money for local advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.

If that cash can push this race back within the margin of error, Democrats have a shot at retaining the upper house.

Fox News Power Rankings Senate table.

The House is still a toss-up in the latest forecast. In fact, with three more races joining that category, it is less clear than ever which direction the lower chamber will take.

• California’s 45th district: President Biden won this southern California district by six points last cycle (Dave’s Redistricting), but its heavy and right-leaning Asian American population makes it highly competitive. Republicans are pouring money into the race to protect incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel, whose position on abortion could be an issue with Los Angeles-area voters. She faces Democratic lawyer Derek Tran. This race moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.

• Nebraska’s 2nd district: This Omaha-centered district has been represented by Republican Rep. Don Bacon since 2017. Bacon and the district made news last week when he signed a letter calling for Nebraska to become a “winner-take-all” state before the presidential election. The gamble would have helped Trump if it had succeeded, but calling for the change could put Bacon in danger with some of the centrist voters he has relied on in previous elections. He faces Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas. This district moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

NEBRASKA GOP SENATOR OPPOSES ELECTORAL COLLEGE CHANGE THAT MAY HAVE HELPED TRUMP WIN RE-ELECTION

Fox News Power Rankings House table.

Robinson is more than embattled in this race. At least four senior staffers have resigned from his campaign, allies have jumped ship, and the Republican Governors Association is not spending another dollar on advertising. 

No one knows how this will impact Trump. Voting has begun with Robinson’s name a few rows down from Trump’s on the ballot, and Democrats are reminding voters about the strong, consistent praise that the former president has offered Robinson. However, calcified support for Trump among Republicans and the state’s history of ticket splitting should keep him competitive. 

Fox News Power Rankings governor table.