Former President Donald Trump has lost his edge in Georgia and North Carolina in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a lead in the overall forecast for the first time.
However, with six toss-up states on the map worth a combined 78 electoral votes, this election is still anyone’s game.
Debate watchers say Harris won, but wait a few weeks to assess the race
Debate watchers declared Harris the winner of Tuesday’s presidential debate. In a flash poll conducted by CNN in the hours after the showdown, 63% of watchers said they thought Harris had a better performance, and 37% said Trump did.
Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS ISSUES TRACKER: TRUMP LEADS ON TWO TOP ISSUES, BUT HARRIS IS GAINING GROUND
Trump made headlines for unfounded claims about migrants eating pets and a rebuttal about the size of his rallies, leaving Harris, who stayed on topic and made appeals to moderates, largely out of the conversation after the debate.
When Trump was able to communicate effectively, he told voters that the nation was in decline because of the cost of living and illegal immigration. Issues polling continues to show that it is a strong message.
As with any major event, it will take a few weeks to assess the debate’s impact on the horse race.
Polling shifts after previous debates.
Over the last 12 months of the Fox News Poll, between 48-50% of registered voters have said they supported Trump.
Criminal indictments, a conviction, the primaries, a last-minute change in opponents and an assassination attempt did nothing to move the former president out of that three-point range.
Former President Donald Trump has not moved out of a three-point range.
A series of recent polls from the New York Times/Siena, Marist, Pew and the Wall Street Journal show a similarly even race.
Trump has lost his edge in two battleground states
Harris’ gains extend to the battleground states, where two races are moving in her direction.
Georgia and North Carolina were President Biden and former President Donald Trump’s closest wins, respectively, in 2020.
In Georgia, Trump is ahead by three points in a Quinnipiac poll among likely voters released last week (49%-46%) and leads by seven points in Siena’s registered voter survey from early August (51%-44%). However, Harris edges Trump by one point in CNN’s recent likely voter poll (48%-47%) and is ahead by two in Fox’s August survey (50%-48%).
Democrats always perform well in the Atlanta metropolitan area, which contains highly populated counties like Fulton and DeKalb and makes up more than 60% of the state’s residents. Republicans run up the margins in the rural areas, and Trump has consistently brought them out to vote. Harris kicked off a bus tour in the southeastern city of Savannah last month as she attempts to chip away at the margins there.
Recent polls in North Carolina.
Harris continues to have an edge in Michigan in this forecast. Biden won the state by just under three points in 2020, and voters have delivered the Democrats important victories since that race. The GOP also has a weaker ground game there than in other must-win states.
Harris leads the forecast, but 78 toss-up votes mean this election is still anyone’s game
Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast.
That leaves 78 toss-up votes up for grabs across six battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
States that poll close in an election tend to be won and lost together. Trump won seven of the eight battlegrounds in 2016 (the states listed above plus Michigan and Nebraska’s second district), and Biden flipped six of the same eight in 2020.
Battlegrounds have been won and lost together.
Harris is closer to the finish line than Trump, but the large number of states where neither candidate has an advantage means this race is still very competitive.
Less than 8 weeks until election night
Election night will be here before you know it. With Labor Day behind us and early voting scheduled to start in the coming days, we are in the final sprint of this once-in-a-lifetime cycle.
Vice presidential hopefuls Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance will participate in a debate hosted by CBS News on October 1 in New York City.
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Fox News Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by Martha MacCallum and Bret Baier in October.
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