Global Partnerships Play Key Role in US Ability to Deter China-Taiwan Conflict: Experts

Retired Gen. Charles Flynn told a House committee hearing on the threats from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that the positions being taken by U.S. partners and allies are a much-needed advantage for the United States, as together, they look to deter a conflict between the Chinese communist regime and Taiwan.

“That means that the 119th Congress may be the last full legislative session with a chance to alter [Chinese regime leader] Xi [Jinping]’s calculus. We cannot delay,” he said.

Flynn, who left command in 2024, told House lawmakers and experts during the May 15 hearing that the U.S. position is buffered by like-minded partners who all face risks in a Chinese conflict.

“What the Chinese military were doing 10 years ago compared to what they’re doing today is dramatically different,” he said. “Are they rehearsing? Are they preparing? Absolutely. But I also think that we are in a very good position to be able to counter them because we have this advantage, and that advantage is the partnerships of the allies and partners in the region.”

Flynn gave the example of the Philippines, which is comprised of 7,500 islands south of the South China Sea. The army makes up 70 percent of its military, and the Philippines has more army divisions than the United States.

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“And what I’m saying is, if we match up with them, we’re going to be in a much different place in terms of assurance and deterrence,” Flynn said.

“This is not just a U.S. problem. This has to be a Taiwan problem, a Japanese problem, a Philippine problem. It’s got to be the entire first island chain to include South Korea.”

Kurt Campbell, former Deputy Secretary of State, said during his testimony that the United States has been a leader in recognizing and partnering with Taiwan, saying “we should take credit” for some of the island nation’s resilience with regards to its democracy.

With the United States leading the way, other nations have followed suit, and the CCP has taken note, Campbell said.

However, Campbell noted that China has been strengthening its partnerships as well, most concerningly with Russia but also with nations in the global South.

“What China is doing to help Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine is truly concerning, but remember, it’s the reverse that’s going to affect us as well. Russia has capabilities, hypersonic capabilities, silencing of their submarines, things that they’re going to provide to China that are going to provide a real threat to us,” he said.

He added that the United States should resist the Chinese regime’s efforts to deny Taiwan a role in the United Nations because “the truth is that the U.N. is a pretty important battleground for hearts and minds in the Global South. ”

“It is essential that we get all these other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that are buying into this approach to understand that it’s contrary to their interests as well,” he said.

“Again, I’ll just remind people that at the end, the objective is to invade it, and that’s the most dangerous scenario,” he said. “If we want to increase our indications and warnings and buy time for diplomacy and political intervention, then we need to be watching the thing that they need to actually invade, because they’re not going to invade with the Air Force, they’re not going to invade with the Navy. You need a gun on the ground to be able to subjugate those people.”

To that end, Flynn noted there could be better use made of existing partnerships.

He took the example of two army ports in Hiroshima, Japan, that were built under U.S. leadership after World War II. “We’re only using about 40 percent of the storage on the ground in those facilities,” he said. “We’re not putting the equipment on the ground fast enough.

“One example, there are seven vessels that were loaded with prepositioned equipment—equipment afloat in the Pacific. We were taking those vessels and just having the equipment float out there. My point was, let’s get it on the ground and keep it distributed. Give those ships back to the Navy.”

Flynn added that there has been much focus among lawmakers about how much Taiwan should be spending on defense, but not equal attention paid to whether the United States can actually supply that volume of arms or whether it can be put to good use.

“We can give them 400 harpoon systems, but if they don’t have 400 crews that actually know how to man them, use them, employ them, site them, and have a primary, alternate, and supplementary firing position, it doesn’t matter how many things they have,” Flynn said. “This is where our value as a training body is so important.”

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recommended that the U.S. training team of 500 be doubled to 1,000.

“If we’re going to give them billions of dollars in assistance, sell them tens of billions of dollars of worth of U.S. gear, it makes sense that we’d be over there training and working,” he said.

Montgomery said one “zero cost” action would be to “begin practicing escorts and reflaggings with Taiwan,” noting how both Taiwan and Japan import liquid natural gas (LNG) and that such exercises would be vulnerable if the Chinese military sought to intercept those shipments.

“We need to work with Australia and we need to work with Alaska, because right now, they’re heavily dependent on Qatar,” he said of the Asian region’s supply of LNG. “I think, in the middle of a crisis, China’s going to turn to Qatar and say, ‘We buy 15 times more LNG than Taiwan. You need to stop delivering to one country,’ and Qatar is going to choose very quickly to stop delivering to Taiwan.”

Campbell said Europe would understand the value of such a strategy as well, having seen the impact of a natural gas shortfall in Ukraine over the winter.

Experts and lawmakers also raised concerns about U.S. dependency on China for technology, including larger, legacy semiconductor chips that may be used in U.S. military equipment.

Committee ranking member Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) said that Taiwan is not only a major U.S. trade partner but the world’s producer of the most advanced semiconductors, pointing to the brief pause in supply during the pandemic and the domino effect felt around the world.

Much of the conversation around chips has been around the smallest, most advanced wafers, which are made in Taiwan and needed for AI applications but are also used in consumer technology, Montgomery said.

Campbell added that partner nations are likely to understand the need for a change in global trade agreements, provided that they have a clear sense of what to expect. Constant changes in tariffs might end up contributing to doubt, he cautioned of the ongoing negotiations, which the CCP would play on to weaken the United States’ partnerships.

“I’d ask you what two countries are more interdependent but more uncomfortable with that interdependence: it’s both the United States and China,” Campbell said. “We have to diversify these supply chains, but that is not an easy process, because we’ve built up this interdependence for 30 years, and it will take more than just a couple of days to separate us. That is the direction that we’re going, but it’s going to be harder than we realize.

“They’re going to be prepared to take steps if we put forward a predictable policy. And they may not like all the tariff stuff, but if they have an understanding of what is to be expected, they’ll respond accordingly.”

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) added that if the situation with the CCP devolves into war, “it would be a horrific worldwide economic calamity.”