Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied in battleground Michigan, according to a new public opinion poll.
Fox News’ Power Rankings have moved Michigan into the toss-up column, with both parties making a strong play for Rust Belt voters. The race has tightened significantly, with voters split along generational and gender lines, according to an AARP poll conducted Oct. 2-8.
With a full ballot including all third-party candidates, Harris and Trump are tied at 46% support each, the survey said. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. still receives 3% support even though he endorsed Trump in August. All other third-party candidates polled at a combined 2%.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris by just one point, 49%-48%.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump answers questions at a meeting of the Detroit Economic Club, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
The survey is consistent with other AARP polls that have pointed to a generational divide.
Harris leads by double digits among voters 18-34 and 65+, while Trump polls stronger among voters 35-49 and 50-64.
Voters are split by gender as well. “There is a very large gender gap of a net 40-points among voters overall and 29-points among voters 50+, with Harris strong with women voters and Trump with men,” the survey release states.
The AARP poll also finds a competitive race for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, Mich., on Friday, Oct. 4, 2024.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a three-term House lawmaker, holds a narrow 49%-46% lead over Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%.
Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”
The party reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election to win the White House.
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U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, the Democratic candidate for the open Michigan U.S. Senate seat, left, and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate vying for the seat, debated the issues on Monday, Oct. 14, 2024, with moderators Alicia Smith, Chuck Stokes and Carolyn Clifford of WXYZ-TV in Southfield, Mich. (Mandi Wright/Detroit Free Press via AP)
Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats’ column and defeated Trump.
Harris will swing through Detroit for a campaign stop Tuesday afternoon. During her visit to Motor City, she will participate in a radio town hall with Charlamagne tha God. The vice president will return to Michigan on Friday for events in Grand Rapids, Lansing and suburban Detroit.
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Trump visited Michigan last Thursday and delivered a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, where he announced proposals to make interest on auto loans tax-deductible, slash corporate taxes for American manufacturers and threatened up to 1,000% tariffs on foreign-imported vehicles if he returns to the White House.
Fox Business’ Michael Dorgan contributed to this update.
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