Harris-Trump showdown: Margin-of-error presidential race with one week until Election Day

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With one week to go until Election Day, it remains a coin-flip White House race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.

Facing a margin-of-error race in both the national polls and the swing state surveys, both the vice president and the former president, their running mates, and top surrogates continue to fan out across the seven crucial battleground states that will likely decide the 2024 presidential election.

On the trail

The Republican presidential nominee starts Tuesday from his home base in Palm Beach, Florida, where his campaign says Trump will deliver remarks to the press.

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Trump at MSG

Former President Trump holds a rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden, on Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)

The former president then holds two events in Pennsylvania, which, with 19 electoral votes at stake, is the largest prize among the key swing states.

Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, campaigns with two stops in battleground Michigan.

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The Democratic nominee is in the nation’s capital, taking a break from swing state travel for a day, as she delivers what the Harris campaign touts as her closing argument, in an address from the Ellipse, with the White House as a backdrop.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Burns Park Monday, Oct. 28, 2024, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Burns Park Monday, Oct. 28, 2024, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya) (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, makes three stops in the crucial southeastern battleground of Georgia.

Casting ballots

Early voting turnout has been brisk, with swing states such as Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina breaking records.

And with Trump apparently fully on board, the GOP’s efforts to convince Republicans to vote early appear to be working. 

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The GOP hopes this surge in early voting will help the party rebound from setbacks in the 2020 and 2022 elections, when Democrats dominated early in-person voting and absentee balloting.

Poll position

A handful of national polls point to a dead heat between Harris and Trump, while others indicate the vice president with the slight advantage or the former president with the edge.

Trump and Harris split image

But getting past the top lines, there are warning signs for both candidates.

Harris has lost her favorability advantage over Trump in some of the most recent surveys.

After replacing President Biden atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket in July, the vice president’s favorable ratings soared. But they’ve steadily eroded over the past month.

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Another red flag for Harris are polls indicating her support among Black voters is below Biden’s levels in the 2020 election.

For Trump, his support among White voters is on par with his standing in the 2020 election, when he lost the White House to Biden.

And the former president still faces a healthy deficit to the vice president when it comes to being trustworthy and caring about people.