Michigan Senate Race Shifts From ‘Lean Democrat’ to ‘Toss Up’ Ahead of Biden’s Visit

Key swing state’s Senate race could determine party control of upper chamber

The U.S. Senate race in Michigan moved from “lean Democrat” to “toss up” according to the Cook Political Report on Thursday, amid growing concerns that President Joe Biden’s stumbling candidacy is hurting down-ballot Democrats.

The shift indicates political trouble for Democrats in Michigan, a key swing state for the presidential election, where the competitive Senate race to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow could determine party control of the upper chamber next year.

The Cook Political Report said it revised its prediction because the expected Democratic nominee, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is underperforming Biden in the state.

“Michigan is the only state where a Democrat is running behind Biden’s statewide numbers—likely in part because Slotkin is still not universally known statewide,” said the election forecast group. “Democrats say their polling still has Slotkin running better than Biden, but there’s no denying it’s very close. As such, we are shifting the open Michigan Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up.”

The report added that it’s still unclear “the full impact that Biden—if he remains the party’s nominee—could have on Senate Democrats.”

Slotkin’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee cheered the news in a statement.

“Elissa Slotkin said it herself: Joe Biden can’t win Michigan,” said NRSC spokeswoman Maggie Abboud. “She is going to have a hard time untangling herself from Biden since she votes with him 100% of the time.”

The news comes as Slotkin has distanced herself from Biden. She will not appear with the president in Detroit during his visit on Friday, according to CNN.

She also reportedly warned donors in a private phone call earlier this week that her internal polling numbers showed former president Donald Trump winning in Michigan and her own race as a toss up.

“Right now, President Biden is behind Trump in all of our polling and this Senate race is in a dead heat,” Slotkin said on the call, according to the New York Times.

Slotkin is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, which will take place on Aug. 6. Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.) is the frontrunner in the Republican primary.

Biden’s trip to Detroit on Friday will be his fourth visit to Michigan this year.