October Surprises Keep Coming. Will They Impact the November Election?

With just 30 days remaining until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are ramping up their campaigns for a final push to sway undecided voters. Recent polls indicate that both candidates are neck-and-neck in all seven battleground states.

This election cycle has already been marked by dramatic events, including two assassination attempts on Trump and President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race, passing the reins to Harris.

A new wave of unexpected events, commonly referred to as “October surprises,” is emerging, potentially shaping the final stretch of the campaign and significantly influencing the election’s outcome.

War in the Middle East

In the months leading up to the U.S. presidential election, tensions in the Middle East have been escalating, particularly following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel last week in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned the Iranian regime on Oct. 6 during an interview with Fox News.

“At the moment, everything is on the table,” Gallant said about Israel’s potential response to the Iranian attack.

Iran launched an unprecedented ballistic missile attack on Oct. 1 on Israel, targeting its air bases and the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv. With the help of the United States and its partners, Israel was able to defeat the attack.

Related Stories

Some said that Iran’s recent attack has allowed the Israeli leadership to take action to eliminate the regime in Tehran.

“Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East,” former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote on X after the attack. “We must act *now* to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”

The Israeli government pledged to retaliate, although it’s unclear if it will target the Iranian leadership and its nuclear program. Israel has long viewed Tehran as the epicenter of all regional efforts that threaten its security.

Such an escalation could put the Biden administration in a tough spot before the election.

A war between Iran and Israel could drag the United States into a war with Tehran, which could influence the election in November. It would likely be a bad October surprise for Harris, jeopardizing her chances of winning the November election.

Trump has been criticizing the Biden administration over its handling of global wars.

“Look at the world today—look at the missiles flying right now in the Middle East, look at what’s happening with Russia/Ukraine, look at inflation destroying the world,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Oct. 1.

“None of this happened while I was president,” he wrote in all caps.

The developments in the Middle East over the past year have not gone as Biden planned.

His administration’s objective was to lower tensions in the region since day one, with the hope of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Just two weeks before the Oct. 7 attack on Israel last year, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at The Atlantic Festival that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades,” highlighting a range of positive developments in the region. However, the surprise attack by Hamas has altered everything.

For months, Biden has been trying to secure a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the terrorist group and bring the hostages home, a primary goal before the end of his term.

However, many believe a peace deal is out of reach for the president due to the recent escalation of tensions in the region. His focus has now shifted to avoiding a full-fledged conflict in the Middle East.

“I don’t believe there’s going to be an all-out war. I think we can avoid it,” Biden told reporters on Oct. 3. “But there’s a lot, a lot to do yet.”

When asked the same day whether the United States would send troops to fight in support of Israel, Biden responded, “We’ve already helped Israel. We’ll continue to … protect Israel.”

New Filing Against Trump

Meanwhile, a federal judge in Washington, D.C., unsealed a lengthy document from special counsel Jack Smith on Oct. 2, presenting evidence in the criminal case against Trump regarding his alleged interference in the 2020 election.

The filing argued that the former president remains subject to trial for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, despite the Supreme Court’s ruling granting him immunity for official acts. Prosecutors argued that Trump acted “in his capacity as a candidate for reelection, not in his capacity as President.”

“Although the defendant was the incumbent President during the charged conspiracies, his scheme was fundamentally a private one,” the 165-page brief from prosecutors read.

The brief contains an allegation that Trump told an aide, “So what?” after learning that Mike Pence, then vice president, had been taken to a secure place after rioters stormed the Capitol and security held fear for Congress members’ safety.

Prosecutors also alleged that a White House staffer overheard Trump telling his family that “it doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell.”

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled over the summer that presidents are immune from prosecution for official acts, but not for unofficial acts, remanding the case back to District of Columbia Judge Tanya Chutkan.

The impact of the filing on the 2024 election remains uncertain. Trump’s campaign called it “election interference” as it was released just a month before the election.

Trump stated immediately after the unsealing that he would vigorously fight Smith in court. He responded to the brief with a series of social media posts criticizing the Justice Department and describing the brief as “falsehood-ridden” and unconstitutional.

After Smith’s brief was unsealed, Trump’s team filed a response requesting to submit an oversized brief as Smith did—indicating a similarly thorough and detailed response.

Meanwhile, the Harris campaign used the special counsel’s brief to target Trump, in a new ad.

“We knew it was bad. But it’s worse than we thought. Much worse than we thought,” the ad stated.

Political Ramifications of the Hurricane

Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc in the Southeast last week, and recovery efforts are still underway. The storm, the deadliest since Katrina in 2005, swept through six states including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee.

More than 230 people are known to have died, and many more lost their homes and their sources of income. Amid the crisis, the Biden administration has faced a wave of criticism due to dissatisfaction with the federal government’s relief efforts, turning into a political storm for Biden and Harris.

Trump criticized the administration, saying that the federal government is withholding aid for Republican counties hit by Helene.

Since last week, the administration has been refuting such claims, including social media posts about insufficient federal government support, calling all of them disinformation.

Last week, Biden traveled to North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida to inspect the damaged areas. He authorized 1,500 troops to support on-the-ground efforts while also distributing $210 million directly to those affected by Helene.

Biden has defended the federal government’s rescue efforts, stating that he deployed “extensive resources” before Helene made landfall and approved emergency declarations.

“Our job is to help as many people as we can,” Biden said.

The president also warned about the need for more funding to cover the costs associated with the storm.

“It’s going to cost a lot of money,” Biden said during a press briefing on Oct. 4.

He has urged Congress to return from recess to pass supplemental funding to help with the recovery efforts. The House and Senate are not scheduled to return to Washington until after the election.

This sparked a heated debate over the use of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funds.

Trump said that the Biden administration has spent FEMA funds on housing for illegal immigrants.

The White House pushed back against the accusations, stating that the Disaster Relief Fund is separate from other grant programs administered by FEMA for the Department of Homeland Security.

“Congress needs to come back and do their job and provide extra assistance, extra funding to the Disaster Relief Fund,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre said during a press briefing on Oct. 7. “That’s what Congress needs to do, and we’re going to continue to urge that.”

Hurricane Milton is anticipated to make landfall around the Tampa Bay area on Oct. 9, while Biden is set to depart for foreign trips to Germany and Angola beginning the next day.

There are no updates to the president’s schedule, Jean-Pierre said.

“The president’s looking forward to going on the trip.”

Oil Prices Soar on Middle East Threat

U.S. crude oil prices have soared 11 percent over the last week, surging toward $76 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and registering their best weekly performance in two years.

Oil has rocketed on concerns that Israel could strike Iran’s energy infrastructure in response to Tehran’s barrage of ballistic missile attacks against it. Investors fear a broader Middle East conflict would disrupt oil trade flows from the region.

Traders also picked up on recent comments from Biden when asked if he would support Israel sinking Iran’s oil facilities.

“We’re discussing that,” Biden told reporters.

Energy markets across the board have witnessed exceptional price increases on the war-risk premium. Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil, has rallied more than 10 percent to nearly $80 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. Gasoline and heating futures each climbed about 8 percent in the last week.

Looking ahead, all the attention will be on how Israel responds and if Iran gets more involved in the regional conflict, say ING strategists.

Forecasts differ on how much a supply disruption could impact worldwide energy markets. However, a wider regional war might cause the United States to endure another near-term inflation shock.

Sam Dorman contributed to this report.