Recounts are Unlikely To Swing More Than a Few Hundred Votes. Bob Casey, Down By 30,000, Is Opting for One That Will Cost Taxpayers Millions.

‘One inescapable truth: Dave will be winning by tens of thousands of votes,’ McCormick campaign says

Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.), who trails Republican Dave McCormick by 30,000 votes in their Senate race, will move forward with a recount of ballots in the contest—a process that is unlikely to swing more than a few hundred votes but will cost taxpayers at least $1 million. 

The Pennsylvania Department of State announced Wednesday that the race is headed to an automatic recount, which is triggered when the margin is less than a half-percentage point. McCormick leads Casey by roughly 30,000 votes, just under the threshold, with around 80,000 provisional and mail-in ballots left to be counted. Casey could waive his right to a recount but declined to do so on Wednesday.

The Associated Press called the race for McCormick last week. McCormick has declared victory, and Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer invited the Republican to orientation for incoming senators this week. Casey, however, has refused to wave the white flag, leading his critics to accuse him of denying the election results. 

Casey says he has a shot at victory with tens of thousands of uncounted ballots. The three-term incumbent has sought donations to fund the legal fight and tapped disgraced Democratic elections lawyer Marc Elias to help with the recount effort. 

“A recount will be a waste of time & taxpayer money, but it is Casey’s prerogative,” said McCormick campaign communications director Elizabeth Gregory. 

“The (original) count is pretty accurate because the machines work — they work very well,” Tammy Patrick, an expert with the National Association of Election Officials, told the AP. 

The recount will cost at least $1 million, according to the Department of State, and is unlikely to change more than a few hundred votes. According to the AP, there have been 36 recount fights since 2000, and none have resulted in changes of more than a few hundred ballots. Only three recounts have resulted in new winners. 

But Elias was in one of those three recount flips. He represented comedian Al Franken, who trailed Republican Sen. Norm Coleman by 215 votes in the 2008 race but ended up winning by 225 votes.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Franken had “effectively stolen an election” through legal maneuvers to count thousands of absentee ballots that were initially rejected for deficiencies. Elias, who oversaw the legal strategy, filed legal challenges of other absentee votes cast in favor of Coleman. A watchdog group later found that hundreds of convicted criminals illegally voted in the Minnesota race, potentially swinging the vote for Franken.  

The McCormick team remains confident that Casey will be unable to close the gap. 

“One inescapable truth: Dave [McCormick] will be winning by tens of thousands of votes” after the recount, McCormick campaign elections consultant Mark Harris told reporters on a conference call Thursday. 

Casey’s best bet was Philadelphia, a heavily Democratic city. But few votes remain to be counted there, said Harris. Philadelphia election commissioners on Wednesday voted to reject 2,732 mail-in ballots because they lacked signatures, voter identification, or had failed to be placed in a security envelope. 

But the McCormick camp is keeping an eye on Elias, who is perhaps best known for commissioning the anti-Trump Steele dossier on behalf of the Clinton campaign.

“We are deeply disturbed by the Democrats’ legal efforts,” said Harris, who noted that “Marc Elias has a very checkered history.” 

Elias has also tried to overturn other Republican victories. As attorney for then-Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D., N.Y.) in 2021, Elias argued that voter machine malfunctions cost his client thousands of votes in his race against the victorious Republican, Claudia Tenney. That same year, Elias pressured House Democratic leaders, many of whom were his clients, to overturn Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s (R., Iowa) victory over his client, Rita Hart (D.). 

Pennsylvania counties will begin the recount on Nov. 20. Results will not be released until Nov. 27, the day before Thanksgiving.