Trump won Virginia by winning the support of most key demographic groups in the Virginia Republican primary.
As has been the case throughout the primaries, Trump won with the support of the different components of the Republican Party, most of whom had made up their minds to vote for him last year before any of the primary contests had begun.
Conservative voters and White evangelicals strongly backed him, as did voters without college degrees. He also won majorities of both men and women, both White and non-White voters, and among voters of all age groups.
Four in 10 voters in this open primary did not identify as Republicans, possibly making Virginia a little less friendly territory for Trump than either in Iowa or South Carolina. Most voters did not consider themselves part of the MAGA movement.
But Trump still controlled the narrative, to some extent. Immigration is the top concern for voters and most think undocumented immigrants should be deported. The voters who think so are voting for Trump, and most trust him to handle the crisis at the border.
Most voters are dissatisfied or angry with the way things are going in the country and feel the economy is not doing well. These voters are also voting for Trump, and they trust Trump to handle the economy better.
Most even trust Trump to better handle an international crisis. The top qualities voters wanted in a candidate were sharing your values and fighting for people like me, Trump won those voters as well.
Haley won among the four in 10 voters who either identified as Democrats or independents, as well as those voting in a GOP primary for the first time. Most of those voters were not Republicans, and she won moderates.
But these voters weren’t enough to offset an electorate that was still mostly Republican and largely conservative. Even though most Virginia Republican primary voters do not consider themselves MAGA, enough of the non-MAGA Republicans still voted for Trump.