Texas Senate primaries explode as Cornyn warns Paxton could cost GOP majority, Democrats clash over race

The 2026 primary season kicks off on Tuesday with showdowns in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, with contests that could ultimately decide whether Republicans can hold their House and Senate majorities in the midterm elections.

Taking center stage this week: the combustible Democratic and Republican Senate primaries in right-leaning Texas.

Progressive firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a nationally known politician and vocal critic of President Donald Trump, is facing off against rising star Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico in the battle for the Democratic Senate nomination.

Either Crockett or Talarico will try to become the first Democrat in nearly four decades to win a Senate election in Texas, as the primary winner will face off against whoever comes out on top of a bruising three-way Republican primary among longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

The Cornyn campaign and aligned super PACs have spent nearly $100 million to run ads attacking Paxton and Hunt, with the senator charging in the closing weeks of the primary campaign that Democrats will flip the seat in the general election if Paxton’s the GOP’s nominee.

Cornyn, his allies, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm of the Senate GOP, have repeatedly pointed to the slew of scandals and legal problems that have battered Paxton over the past decade, as well as his ongoing messy divorce.

TRUMP’S IRAN STRIKE ROCKS SENATE PRIMARIES IN TEXAS

“If I’m the nominee, I’ll help President Trump by making sure that we carry the five new congressional seats as well as maintain this Senate seat and will help him continue his agenda through the last two years of his term of office,” Cornyn touted in a Fox News Digital interview.

And, he argued, “If the Democrats win, because we nominate a flawed candidate with incredible baggage like the attorney general, then that last two years of [Trump’s] agenda is jeopardized, as well as everybody down ballot that we need to continue to elect as Republicans.”

Paxton, a MAGA firebrand who grabbed significant national attention by filing lawsuits against the Obama and Biden administrations, pushed back, telling Fox News Digital on the eve of the primary that “I’m 3-0. I’ve won three statewide races.”

Pointing to public opinion polls suggesting he has the edge over Cornyn, Paxton argued, “it’s really easy for him to say that when he’s losing a primary, because he’s not delivered for the people of Texas, and he’s going to find out tomorrow what that means. He’s going to end up losing.”

“This idea that I can’t win a race is not true… there’s no evidence of what he’s saying is being true. As a matter of fact, the evidence is just the opposite,” Paxton added.

The GOP nomination battle was a two-person race until Hunt, a West Point graduate and military veteran who flew helicopters during his service and who represents a solidly red district in suburban Houston, announced his candidacy last autumn.

The final public opinion polls suggested Paxton with the edge over Cornyn, with Hunt in third place. If no candidate tops 50% of the vote in Tuesday’s primary, the top two finishers will face off in a late May runoff.

“I think there’s going to be a runoff, no matter what happens,” Cornyn said.

Paxton, speaking to supporters on primary eve, touted that “if we go to a runoff, the odds get better for me.”

Hunt, in a Fox News Digital interview on the eve of the primary, argued that he’s “the best candidate to win the primary and win the general, and I’m already outperforming both candidates, both Ken and John, in the general election against James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett. These are facts.”

And pointing to the negative ads from Cornyn and his allies that have targeted him the past couple of weeks, Hunt said “they have spent tens of millions of dollars against me in the state of Texas, which means that I must be doing the right thing, and I must be a threat. DC will not decide who will be the next senator from Texas. Texans will and that’s why I got in this race.”

Trump, whose clout over the GOP remains immense, has stayed neutral to date in the Republican primary. All three candidates, who have sought the president’s endorsement, were in attendance Friday as Trump held an event in Corpus Christi, Texas.

“They’re in a little race together,” Trump said of Cornyn and Paxton. “You know that, right? A little bit of a race. It’s going to be an interesting one, right? They’re both great people, too.”

Trump also complimented Hunt, and said that all three contenders were engaged in an “interesting election.”

QUITE GOP ‘ASTROTURF’ CAMPAIGN CONVINCED CROCKETT TO JUMP INTO SENATE RACE

In the final weeks leading up to the Democratic primary, race became a key issue in the showdown between the 44-year-old Crockett, a civil rights attorney first elected to Congress in 2022, and the 36-year-old Talarico, a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who is considered a rising star among Democrats.

Crockett, who is Black, claimed a couple of weeks ago that a Talarico-aligned super PAC had darkened her skin tone in an ad and said it was “straight up racist.”

And Crockett argued late last month that criticisms claiming that she wasn’t electable statewide was a “dog whistle” that was “tearing down a Black woman,” and that she was the “most qualified” candidate.

Talarico, who was first elected to the Texas House in 2018 by flipping a red district in northeast Austin and surrounding suburbs, has highlighted his ability to win over Republican voters. And he questioned whether Crockett could run a competitive general election campaign.

And Talarico, who is White, was also accused a month ago by an influencer of calling former Rep. Colin Allred, a one-time rival for the 2026 Senate nomination, a “mediocre Black man.” 

Allred, the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, was making a second straight run after losing two years ago to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative firebrand, by eight points.

But Allred ended his Senate campaign late last year, just before Crockett announced her candidacy. Allred, a former college football star who played professionally in the NFL and later became a civil rights attorney, is now running for his old House seat.

Morgan Thompson, the influencer who goes by the username @morga_tt on TikTok, in a social media post accused Talarico of saying in a private conversation with her that he had “signed up to run against a mediocre Black man, not a formidable, intelligent, Black woman.”

Pushing back against Thompson’s characterization of their conversation, Talarico said in a statement, “In my praise of Congresswoman Crockett, I described Congressman Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre — but his life and service are not. I would never attack him on the basis of race.”

Allred, responding in a social media video, said: “James, if you want to compliment Black women, just do it. Just do it. Don’t do it while also tearing down a Black man.”

Crockett, who days later was endorsed by Allred, said in a statement that the former congressman “drew a line in the sand.”

“He made it clear that he did not take allegations of an attack on him as simply another day in the neighborhood, but more importantly, his post wasn’t about himself,” she said. “It was a moment that he decided to stand for all people who have been targeted and talked about in a demeaning way as our country continues to be divided.”

While dramatically outraised and outspent by Talarico, Crockett is the better-known candidate, thanks in part to her high-profile position on the House Oversight Committee.

The two-term lawmaker, who represents primarily Black and Hispanic majority neighborhoods in Dallas and surrounding inner suburbs south of the city, has grabbed plenty of attention for her clashes with Republicans on the panel, including one with then-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia in 2024 that went viral.

She also made headlines last year for calling longtime Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas “Governor Hot Wheels.”

While Abbott has long used a wheelchair due to a 1984 accident, Crockett argued that her comment referred to his policies, not his physical condition.

Crockett, who made her opposition to Trump central to her campaign, has argued that Democrats need to prioritize turning out low propensity voters rather than winning over Republicans, in order to become the first Democrat since 1988 to win a Senate election in the Lone Star State.

“I don‘t know that we’ll necessarily convert all of Trump‘s supporters. That’s not our goal,” Crockett said in a December interview on CNN after declaring her candidacy.

Talarico, who speaks openly about his faith and how it shapes his progressive policy agenda, last year started garnering national attention through a slew of social media appearances that went viral. Also boosting his profile were his TikTok videos, which have grabbed millions of views, and his appearance last July on Joe Rogan’s top-rated podcast.

Rogan suggested during the interview that Talarico should run for president.

A month later, Talarico was a regular on the cable news networks, conducting dozens of national media interviews, as he and dozens of his fellow Democrats in the Texas House fled the state for weeks, to delay the eventual Trump-led redistricting push in Texas to create up to five more right-leaning congressional seats

Talarico launched his Senate campaign a month later, in September.

Last month, Talarico grabbed even more national attention when his appearance on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” was bumped off broadcast TV and instead appeared on YouTube. Colbert accused his network, CBS, of blocking the interview by citing guidelines from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

The controversy appeared to boost Talarico, with his campaign saying they hauled in $2.5 million in fundraising in the 24 hours “following his censored” interview.

But in the closing days of the primary campaign, Crockett landed the help of former Vice President Kamala Harris. The Democrats’ 2024 presidential nominee recorded a robocall to turnout voters on behalf of Crockett.

“Texas has the chance to send a fighter like Jasmine Crockett to the United States Senate,” Harris said in the call. “Jasmine has the experience and record to hold Donald Trump and his billionaire cronies accountable.”

She also landed an endorsement from rapper Cardi B, who said on Instagram, “If you want somebody that’s going to go up there and represent you and represent your issues, please vote for my sister, Jasmine Crockett.”

Democrats have long tried and failed to win statewide in Texas, but are confident they have a shot this year, due to the rough political climate facing Republicans.

Three House primaries in Texas are also grabbing attention.

Embattled Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is facing a tough primary challenge amid political fallout after allegations of an affair with a former staffer who died by suicide.

Conservative Rep. Dan Crenshaw, the only Republican House member running in a primary Tuesday who isn’t backed by Trump, is facing a strong challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth, who has the endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

And Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee, who was elected in a late January special election, is running against longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green, an outspoken Trump critic, in a newly redrawn district.

In battleground North Carolina, former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley is the clear frontrunner for the GOP Senate nomination in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to cruise to his party’s nomination, setting up a competitive and very expensive general election battle.

In House races, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a tough primary rematch from the left against Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who has Sen. Bernie Sanders’ endorsement.

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In Arkansas, Republican Sen. Tom Cotton faces two primary opponents as he bids for a third six-year term.

And GOP Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is running unopposed in the primary as she seeks a second term.

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