Trump Heads to Middle East—Here’s What to Expect

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia—President Donald Trump will visit the Middle East from May 13 to 16, with scheduled stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The trip marks his first major foreign trip of his second term, following a recent visit to the Vatican for Pope Francis’s funeral two weeks ago.

Trump is expected to announce a series of major investment deals aimed at attracting Gulf money into key U.S. sectors such as defense, technology, and artificial intelligence (AI). His meetings will also focus on pressing regional issues, including the war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group and ongoing nuclear talks with Iran.

Trump’s first destination is Riyadh, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to welcome him with a lavish ceremony, similar to the one during his visit in his first term, which stood in sharp contrast to the cold greeting President Joe Biden received in 2022, when bin Salman merely offered a fist bump.

As in his first term, Trump chose to go to the Middle East first, but unlike eight years ago, Israel is not on the agenda this time.

Here’s what Trump is expected to focus on during his tour in the Gulf.

‘America First’ Investments

Trump has made it clear that his visits abroad will prioritize countries that commit substantial investment in the United States.

Saudi Arabia recently pledged to invest $600 billion over the next four years. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates committed to a $1.4 trillion investment framework in the United States over the next decade, targeting AI and semiconductor infrastructure, the energy sector, and manufacturing.

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The president’s first major foreign trip “symbolizes the value he places on the Gulf allies,” according to Joel Rubin, a Middle East expert and former State Department official under President Barack Obama.

“That symbolism means a lot in terms of how he’s trying to position the United States in the world and to have that relationship be firm,” he told The Epoch Times.

During the trip, Trump will focus on advancing his economic agenda by pursuing major investment commitments from Gulf nations, Rubin said.

The president is also expected to focus on major arms deals, including a potential arms package for Saudi Arabia worth over $100 billion, as well as significant weapons sales to Qatar.

The president is also expected to attend the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum on May 13, which will bring together top American and Saudi business leaders to explore new investment opportunities.

“Trade and investment deals will be announced that will burnish the president’s image as a negotiator,” Alterman said during a press conference previewing the trip. “I’d expect some of the deals to involve areas such as AI and cryptocurrency.”

A White House official told The Epoch Times on May 11 that Qatar had offered to donate a plane to the Department of Defense, but said the gift won’t be presented or accepted this week while in Qatar.

The Qatari government said the transfer was still “under consideration.”

Separately, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to The Epoch Times, “Any gift given by a foreign government is always accepted in full compliance with all applicable laws. President Trump’s Administration is committed to full transparency.”

Saudi–Israeli Normalization

While the primary goal of Trump is to announce major investments and arms deals, he is also expected to address key regional security issues during the trip. Chief among them is the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, as well as the broader question of Saudi–Israeli normalization.

A major focus will be pushing Saudi Arabia to formally join the Abraham Accords, an agreement that established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab neighbors in late 2020. The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement of Trump’s first presidency.

However, the Saudi crown prince has publicly stated that normalization with Israel is contingent on concrete progress toward establishing a Palestinian state—a condition that Israel’s current government firmly rejects.

As a result, expectations for a breakthrough on this front remain low.

“Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is becoming distant,” Rubin said. “Further distant from where it was in the past.”

The price of formalizing diplomatic relations between Tel Aviv and Riyadh is “very high” as it involves getting “the Israeli government to agree to a peace process that ends in a two-state solution.”

Iran Nuclear Talks

Another pressing security issue Trump is expected to raise with Arab leaders during his Gulf visit is the status of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.

Gulf nations are growing increasingly concerned about tensions between Iran and Israel, fearing that a broader regional conflict could jeopardize their economic stability.

“They are fearful that military action with Iran is likely to put them in the splash zone,” Alterman said.

They also believe it’s the right moment for Washington to strike a deal with Iran, given the Islamic regime’s current vulnerability and severe economic problems.

“To a remarkable degree, the Gulf states are much more supportive of U.S.–Iran talks now than they were in 2015,” Alterman said, adding that Arab countries have greater confidence in Trump’s ability to resolve this issue than previous U.S. presidents.

The United States held a fourth round of talks with Iran in Oman on Sunday.

Trump earlier said that the United States has not yet decided whether Iran could enrich uranium domestically under the new deal being negotiated.

“We have not made that decision yet,” Trump told reporters on May 9. “We will.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Sayyid Abbas Araghchi, however, said the next day that Tehran will never back down from its “nuclear rights” despite U.S. pressure.

Trump also recently floated the idea of changing the name of the Gulf of Persia to the Gulf of Arabia.

“I don’t know if feelings are going to be hurt,” Trump told reporters on May 7, adding that he would announce his decision to rename the Gulf during his trip to the Middle East.

Oil Prices

Trump is laser-focused on bringing down gas prices at home to curb inflation and is expected to pressure Gulf states to keep oil prices low. Besides inflation, another key motivation behind this push is to weaken Moscow’s oil revenue.

In January, he called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down their oil prices. In recent weeks, Brent crude prices dropped by more than $10 per barrel, falling into the low $60s—a decline largely driven by Saudi Arabia’s push for a larger-than-expected output increase in May, delivering Trump an important win before his visit.

In a Jan. 23 speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said, “If the price came down, the Russia–Ukraine war would end immediately.”

He believes that lower oil prices would accelerate the end of the war by depriving Moscow of critical revenue it uses to fund its military campaign.

Rare Earths Deal

Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a major player in the rare earths market and has been making significant progress in the mining sector over the past 15 years.

The Islamic kingdom is currently sitting on an estimated $2.5 trillion of mineral reserves and actively seeking investors to unlock this potential.

During his trip, Trump may deepen ties with Saudi Arabia in critical mineral mining and exploration.

This is a growing strategic priority for the Trump administration, as evidenced by initiatives in the Congo and Ukraine, Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the CSIS, said during the press briefing.

“For the United States, where mineral processing remains the most critical choke point and China controls 60 to 90 percent of capacity, a deeper U.S.–Saudi partnership presents a strategic opportunity to expand processing capacity, reduce dependence on China, and bolster long-term supply chain security,” she said.

Saudi Arabia has been aggressively expanding its mining sector as part of its Vision 2030 program, which aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependence.

Just last week, the Saudi cabinet announced that the kingdom is considering a formal agreement with the United States focused on mining and mineral cooperation.

Trump, meanwhile, hinted at a significant announcement ahead of his Middle East trip.

“It’ll be one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject, very important subject,” Trump told reporters on May 6.

He later described it as a “truly earth-shattering” development for the United States.