Trump Leads Harris by 2 Percent in New National Poll

A new national poll indicates former President Donald Trump is in the lead again in the presidential race.

The poll, which surveyed 1,500 registered voters between Oct. 19 and Oct. 22, concluded that if the election were held today, 47 percent of respondents would vote for Trump.

The same poll found 45 percent of respondents would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll carried a 2.5 percent margin of error, making the contest a statistical tie.

The same firms conducted a similar poll in late August. Then, 47 percent backed Harris while 45 percent backed Trump.

The Oct. 24 poll is the latest in a string of positive national results for the Trump campaign.

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10/24/2024

10/24/2024

Since the middle of October, three significant polls published by CNBC, Forbes, and Rasmussen Reports gave Trump the advantage over Harris heading into the home stretch of the 2024 general election season.

The situation is a stark reversal from the positive polling trend for Harris since she entered the race.

In July, following a poor presidential debate performance by President Joe Biden on June 27, Trump took a solid lead in national polling.

According to an average of the polls published by the media organization RealClearPolitics, Trump opened up a 3 percent advantage over Biden during the midsummer month.

On July 21, following weeks of intense pressure from his party, Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed his second-in-command to run in his place.

The Democratic National Committee quickly picked Harris as its candidate and formally nominated her at its August convention in Chicago.

In August, following the Democratic National Convention, Harris eclipsed Trump in the polling average.

Her popularity reached its zenith in the days after the Sept. 10 ABC News presidential debate between herself and Trump.

On Sept. 22, the average of national polling gave Harris a 2.2 percent advantage.

However, Harris’s polling cratered in the following weeks, and the race is now seen as a neck-and-neck contest.

As of Oct. 24, the Real Clear Politics average shows the Democrats and the Republicans are separated by only two basis points.

The metric last displayed a contest this close on June 8. Then, Trump led by three basis points.

New Battleground State Polls

New polls for three of the seven battleground states debuted on Oct. 23, too.

The polls, conducted and published by Marist College’s Marist Institute for Public Opinion, show Trump leading in North Carolina and Arizona and tying with Harris in Georgia.

All three surveys place the contest within their margin of error.

According to Marist, Trump leads by two percentage points in North Carolina, which has 16 Electoral College votes. In 2020 and 2016, Trump carried the Tar Heel State.

A release attached to the poll said that 53 percent of North Carolina respondents who said they are independents plan to vote for Trump, whereas 42 percent of the same cohort said they will cast a ballot for Harris.

According to Marist, the contest in Georgia is tied. Trump won the Peach State in 2016, while Biden won in 2020. This year, Georgia will cast 16 electoral votes.

“Georgia was ground zero for so much controversy in 2020, and it couldn’t be any closer this time as well,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a release.

“Georgia is poised to go [into] extra innings again.”

In the Grand Canyon State, Marist determined Trump leads by a single percentage point.

Trump took Arizona in 2016, while Biden won it in 2020. The state will issue 11 votes in the Electoral College in 2024.

The Marist poll said Trump is preferred over Harris by Latino voters in Arizona.

However, Harris leads Trump by 10 percent among voters who said they are independents.