Trump Verdict Would Likely Impact Small Number of Voters, Poll Finds

A small number of Americans would be influenced by the outcome of former President Donald Trump’s ongoing criminal trial, according to a poll released by NPR and PBS on Thursday.

Around 17 percent of respondents told pollsters that a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for the former president. About 25 percent of non-white voters said the same, according to the poll, while it also found that 20 percent of voters who make less than $50,000 per year and those under age 45 felt the same.

About 17 percent of people who live in small towns, 14 percent of white people without college degrees, 11 percent of people who live in rural areas, and 10 percent of Republicans say they may not vote for President Trump if he’s found guilty in the New York case, according to the poll.

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In March, a USA Today-Suffolk poll found 14 percent of Trump backers wouldn’t support him if he gets convicted. However, fewer than 1 percent would vote for President Biden instead, it found, while about 7.5 percent said they would vote for a third party.

Meanwhile, a poll released by Reuters last week shows that President Joe Biden’s public approval rating has slipped to the lowest level in about two years.

The four-day poll, released May 21, showed just 36 percent of Americans approve of President Biden’s job performance as president, down from 38 percent in April. It was a return to the lowest approval rating of his presidency, last seen in July 2022.

While this month’s drop was within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error, it could bode poorly for President Biden as he faces President Trump in November.

In recent polls, President Trump has had slight leads over President Biden in the states seen as most likely to determine the winner in the U.S. Electoral College. Some surveys have suggested that voters prefer the former president’s economic policies to his predecessor’s.

The Reuters poll found that the state of the U.S. economy was seen as the top issue, picked by 23 percent of respondents as the most important problem facing the country. Some 21 percent of respondents saw political extremism as the top issue and 13 percent picked illegal immigration as the primary problem facing the country.

The former president had a significant edge on President Biden regarding illegal immigration, with 42 percent saying his approach is preferable. Only 25 percent of those surveyed picked President Biden, according to the poll.

It comes about two weeks after the current and former presidents agreed to hold two debates before the 2024 election, with one taking place in late June and another slated for September.

Jury Deliberates

In the New York trial, President Trump is accused of falsifying business records for a repayment plan involving a former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to cover up allegations of an affair that the former president has categorically denied. He has pleaded not guilty, saying the payments were proper and for legal expenses.

Since Wednesday, the jury has been deliberating on the charges, asking to rehear the jury instructions that were introduced by the judge overseeing the case.

The former president faces charges in other jurisdictions, including Washington, Florida, and Georgia. In the Florida case, he is accused of illegally retaining classified documents and obstructing efforts by federal officials to get them back, and he faces 2020 election-related charges in Georgia and Washington. He’s pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Some legal analysts have said the New York case might be the only one that makes it to the trial stage before the November election because the other three cases have been delayed or suspended for various reasons. No trial dates have been set in those cases.

In the Washington and Florida cases, which were brought by federal prosecutors, President Trump could move to pardon himself if he’s convicted or appoint an attorney general to dismiss the charges.

Reuters contributed to this report.