West Virginia Gov. Justice Set to Nab GOP Nod, Flip Manchin’s Senate Seat in Fall

If polls and fundraising are reliable indicators, then term-limited West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice should win his May 14 Republican primary in convincing fashion against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) to contend for retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) open U.S. Senate seat.

In a May 2-5 survey of 558 likely voters by Emerson College for The Hill and Nexstar, those queried preferred Mr. Justice two-to-one—60 percent to 30 percent—over Mr. Mooney. A FiveThirtyEight average of four April polls gives the governor a consistent 60-to-26.2 percent bulge over the five-term House rep.

Mr. Justice, a billionaire whose family owns coal operations and the Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs, where House Republicans staged their “energy week” retreat in March, has also outpaced Mr. Mooney in fundraising.

According to his campaign’s April 24 Federal Elections Commission (FEC) filing, it has raised $2.75 million, spent $2 million, and has $750,300 in the bank. Mr. Mooney’s April 24 FEC report documents nearly $2.1 million in contributions, $2.53 million spent, and $637,363 cash-on-hand.

With Mr. Manchin, West Virginia’s only statewide elected Democrat, announcing in November that he would not seek a fourth term, a Senate seat occupied by Democrats since 1958—more than a half-century by Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.V.)—is a near-certain flip for Republicans and among the key Senate races across the nation during the 2024 election cycle.

Democrats now lead the Senate 51-49. Of 34 chamber seats on 2024 ballots nationwide, 23 are held by Democrats/Independents. While all 11 GOP-held Senate seats appear “safe” or nearly so, as many as nine incumbent Democrats/Independents could be in for a difficult reelection.

Mr. Manchin was among those incumbents facing challenging odds for another six-year term. Democrat voters are vanishing in West Virginia, where former President Donald Trump notched nearly 70 percent of the 2020 vote, and Republicans hold 31-3 and 89-11 statehouse majorities.

Even before he announced his retirement—rumors he’d run for president or his Senate seat as an independent or Republican unfounded—Mr. Manchin’s Senate seat and retiring Sen. Krysten Sinema’s vacated seat in Arizona were on the GOP’s target list, as are Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) and Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) seats.

The chamber-flipping calculus got even better for Republicans when former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican elected twice in deep blue Maryland, announced he was seeking the GOP nod to run for the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.).

Of those 23 Senate races, West Virginia’s GOP primary is the country’s fourth-most expensive inter-party preliminary. More than $5 million has been spent through mid-April by the seven candidates, primarily by the Justice and Mooney campaigns; none of the other five notches more than 3 percent in polls, and FEC filings show nominal fundraising. It’s a two-man race.

Trump-Endorsed ‘RINO’

Mr. Justice, 73, was recruited by Mr. Manchin and elected governor as a Democrat in 2016. During a 2017 rally in Huntington, West Virginia, he switched parties to become a Republican with President Trump standing by his side.

Folksy and popular, Mr. Justice famously coached the Greenbrier East girls’ basketball team during his eight years in office. The Democrat-turned-Republican was recruited to run by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) against Mr. Manchin when it was presumed the centrist would run again.

He is the only candidate on West Virginia’s May 14 ballot in any race endorsed by President Trump.

Mr. Justice is regarded as a moderate and has taken criticism from state Republicans, including Mr. Mooney, for supporting 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act, hailing its green energy initiatives for providing needed broadband improvements and as job generators in a state where coal and gas have been key components of the state’s economy for more than a century.

Mr. Mooney, 52, a member of the conservative House Freedom Coalition, was a vocal critic of both bills, among distinctions he draws between himself and Mr. Justice, although there is little distance between the two in most policy issues.

Nevertheless, Mr. Mooney rarely fails to remind voters that Mr. Justice is a former Democrat and a RINO.

He is supported by the Club for Growth, endorsed by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Several have campaigned with him in West Virginia.

Mr. Mooney secured Mr. Trump’s endorsement in his 2022 midterm Congressional District 2 primary victory over fellow incumbent Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.). He would need an overwhelming turnout from CD 2 to have any chance of defeating the governor.

Democrats: Mayor v. Marine

Both Mr. Justice and Mr. Mooney enter the primary with nagging concerns that could surface as prominent issues in the general campaign.

Mr. Justice’s companies have accrued more than $1 billion in debt to financial institutions and are fielding lawsuits regarding unpaid debts to vendors, unpaid federal mine safety penalties, wage garnishments, and other issues.

Mr. Mooney, meanwhile, has been the subject of a congressional ethics probe regarding allegations a company providing services to his campaign offered his family a free or discounted trip to Aruba.

The Republican Senate primary winner will be heavily favored to defeat the Democratic primary victor in November.

Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, an aide to former Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) who has significant backing from labor unions, is the favorite, especially after being endorsed by Mr. Manchin.

Marine Corps veteran Zach Shrewsbury, the first to declare for the seat, backed by the Progressive Democrats of America and former coal company CEO Don Blankenship, who was convicted of violating safety standards after 29 people were killed in a 2010 coal mine explosion and unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2018 as a Republican, are also on the Democrat primary ballot.

Mr. Shrewsbury, 32, who identifies as a socialist, told The Epoch Times during his November campaign launch in Morgantown that despite West Virginia’s shift to the Republican Party, the state and its voters are not dyed-in-the-wool conservatives and are receptive to a veteran who is not a career politician and could “unite the power of the working class.”

He is leading Democrat Senate candidates in fundraising. His campaign’s April 24 FEC filing showed $289,643 raised, $232,860 spent, and $56,783 in the bank. Mr. Elliot’s campaign reported $125,408 in contributions, $60,072 in expenditures, and $65,336 cash-on-hand.