Whoever Wins This Pennsylvania County Is Expected to Win the White House

ERIE, Pa.—Thousands turned out to the Bayfront Convention Center on Sept. 29 to hear former President Donald Trump speak. Hundreds more gathered outside the convention center to watch Trump’s speech on a jumbo display, while nearby stands were set up to register voters, hawk mail-in ballots, and hand out Trump-Vance yard signs and bumper stickers.

There’s a reason for that: Erie County, which hosts the city of Erie, is a strong indicator of who will win Pennsylvania. Since 1980, with the exception of 1988, the county has backed the winner of statewide presidential races.

While it doesn’t rise to the level of a national bellwether—it’s often backed candidates who went on to lose the general election—since 2008, it’s ultimately backed the candidate who won Pennsylvania.

That makes it a crucial county in 2024, when the winner of Pennsylvania is highly expected by pundits to win the entire election.

As recently as 2008 and 2012, the Democratic Party was king in the county: In his election and reelection bid, President Barack Obama won the county by 20 points and 16.9 points respectively. But in 2016, Trump shifted the county by 18.5 points in Republicans’ favor, and won the county by 1.6 percent.

In 2020, reflecting the razor-thin margins of the election in the state and nationwide, President Joe Biden carried the county by just 1 percent, or 1,417 votes.

Related Stories

10/11/2024

10/11/2024

The changing politics can be attributed in part to the area’s cultural and demographic background.

A few hours’ drive north of Pittsburgh, Erie County sits at the northwestern end of Pennsylvania, bordering the Great Lake of the same name, upstate New York, and Ohio.

The city of Erie, home to large immigrant and university student populations, is Pennsylvania’s fifth most populous, lying at the northern edge of the county. Beyond that, the area has several suburban areas and developments. The southern half of the county is largely rural, home to several scattered, small townships.

The county’s Rust Belt origins are on full display in Erie, with defunct factories and industrial centers dotting the city and its environs.

Demographics

In many ways, the county, with its mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters, reflects larger voter distributions in Pennsylvania.

“I try to explain it this way: if you take all of Pennsylvania … and you shrink it down, it’s Erie, because we’ve got large industry, we’ve got tool and die … the small mom and pop places. The southern part of the county is all rural, strictly agriculture. You’ve got diversity,” Tom Eddy, chairman of the Erie County GOP, told The Epoch Times.

Around 83 percent of them are white. At an average household income of around $60,663, many voters in the area fall squarely into the white working class, a key electorate for both parties.

This demographic has trended toward Republicans since Trump entered politics. In 2008, about 55 percent of them backed Obama. In 2016, Trump’s first presidential campaign, 62 percent of the white working class voted for him. In 2020, their support dipped to 59 percent.

For Democrats, the goal is to largely hold onto their minority share of the demographic, while expanding among suburban, white collar, and Erie city voters—all demographics more favorable to the party in recent years.

Erie County Democratic Party Chairman Sam Talarico—a former schoolteacher who’s been involved in Democratic politics since 2000—acknowledged that in Erie and across the country, Democrats are increasingly struggling with the white working class.

On the other hand, he noted that suburban areas—such as Fairview Township and Harborcreek, which border the city center to the east and west—are shifting in Democrats’ favor.

“Fairview is our most affluent community, and it used to be a Republican stronghold. It’s about 50/50, right now, possibly a little more blue, and it’s turning bluer,” Talarico said.

Democrats are also striving to keep their substantial lead in the city itself, a lead aided by the city’s vast student and immigrant population—two demographics that also favor the Democratic Party.

Trump and the Republicans, meanwhile, are seeking to expand their lead among the white working class—which makes up a substantial swath of the Pennsylvania electorate—and to win over independents.

Eddy noted that Democrats do maintain a slight advantage in voter registration in the county, with about 10,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. But the most crucial bloc for both parties is the county’s 35,000 independents.

“I think the big swing is going to be the independent voter,” Eddy said. “They’re the ones that make the difference.”

Speaking about the closing gap between registered Republicans and Democrats in recent years, Talarico said, “I’m not going to say it isn’t concerning. It is.”

But like Eddy, Talarico said the real “X factor” will be the independents.

And many of those independents, he noted, are young people—a demographic that tends to favor Democrats, particularly young women.

For Republicans and Democrats on the ground, the stakes are clear: As goes Erie, so goes Pennsylvania; and as goes Pennsylvania, so goes the election.

Republican Enthusiasm

With just about a month left until the election, Erie County appears more politically active than ever: Bumper stickers, billboards, and yard signs expressing support for one candidate or the other litter the area, with a noticeably stronger showing of “Trump/Vance” signs.

There are strong indicators of Republican enthusiasm.

At GOP headquarters in Erie—a small office space in a strip mall just outside the city center—county residents stopped by in droves.

Almost every 10 minutes, a new person came into the office requesting voter registration forms, mail-in ballots, or apparel to show their support for Trump. Many offered $20 donations in exchange for a dwindling supply of Trump shirts. Several purchased apparel for their children.

The office is filling yellow file envelopes with voter registrations and mail-in ballots almost every day—including many who have never voted before. Often, the Republicans run out of apparel to offer voters due to the high demand.

“The energy level is extremely high. That’s what I’ve noticed more than I’ve noticed in any of the other elections,” Eddy said.

The Erie County Democratic headquarters is a few miles away in downtown Erie, comprising a large office space a few dozen blocks from the city center.

Compared to Republican headquarters, the energy level is noticeably muted and less chaotic. Volunteers could be seen talking, watching television, and taking calls in the office’s large backroom area. A handful of other volunteers and voters circled through to collect party apparel, yard signs, or bumper stickers.

While it’s harder to access the building by vehicle, with only a limited number of meter-based parking spots outside, the subdued atmosphere reflects the uncertain position Democrats find themselves in.

While Talarico noted that “on paper” his party’s prospects look bleak, Talarico told The Epoch Times that he still sees reason for optimism.

“The most compelling thing I’ve seen is enthusiasm,” he said.

Before Biden’s departure, Democrats had just 60 or so volunteers; since Harris took over the ticket, that number has jumped to 320. Around 250 people attended a vice presidential debate watch party hosted by the county party.

Talarico also noted that Democrats have seen vast success in the county in recent nonpresidential elections.

That’s true. In 2022, Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) handily defeated Republican Mehmet Oz in Erie County, winning 53 percent of the vote to Oz’s 44 percent. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro enjoyed greater success the same year, defeating his Republican opponent by a landslide 22-point margin in Erie County.

Thus, Talarico said, Democrats’ position might not be “as dire as it looks on paper.”

‘Trump Factories’

It’s not just the Erie County Republican Party that’s hard at work trying to flip the county back to Trump’s camp.

Leo Williard, a small business owner, has set up what he calls “Trump factories” in two auto dealerships owned by his friend and located just outside downtown Erie.

While still managing his own business, Williard told The Epoch Times that he spends hours every week talking to and converting Democratic voters to Trump’s side.

Williard said he was inspired to do so by the city of Erie’s Democratic leanings: While the rural and suburban areas are more evenly divided, the city itself votes overwhelmingly for Democrats.

Many of those who come into the dealership are from the city, he said.

“And we started talking to those people, and I have a table set up in the corner of his office up there that I call the ‘Trump corner.’ I call this whole process the ‘Trump factory,’” Williard said, adding that he was bringing as many as five to 15 Democrats a day over to Trump’s side.

“You can’t believe the people we are turning from Democrat to Trump.”

For many, financial concerns—particularly inflation—are the most pressing issue, Williard said, agreeing that inflation could be described as “the No. 1 issue” in the county right now. The modest income of many residents makes the hit harder than it might be in more affluent areas, Williard said.

Williard said that Democrats’ decision to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris did energize the Democratic base in the city, but he is confident.

“I still think that Erie County, based on the work I see being done and the enthusiasm I see, will go red. I think it will turn the state red,” Williard said.

Republicans have seen strong signs for optimism—but recent Democratic victories in the county still undercut any sort of certainty.