10 Republican Rivals Toss Hats Into Primary for Open Montana House Seat

When Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) withdrew from the 2024 Republican U.S. Senate primary in April, he narrowed the field, making Tim Sheehy the clear front-runner to challenge Sen. John Tester (D-Mont.) in November.

When he announced a week later that he would not seek another term representing Montana’s Second Congressional District (CD2), his departure opened the race to a flood of Republican candidates vying for the seat in this deep red district.

Ten GOP hopefuls are seeking the party nod in Montana’s June 4 primary in CD2, created after the 2020 Census indicated the state’s population warranted a second congressional district.

The Republican nominee should breeze past the four-candidate Democrat primary winner in CD2, which Cook Political Reports rates as “solid Republican” with a +16 red rating.

In the First Congressional District (CD1), the scenario is reversed. While Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), who served as the secretary of the interior in the Trump administration, faces little opposition on June 4, he will contend with a polished campaigner, Democrat Monica Tranel, in a rematch of their 2022 election, which was decided by 3 percentage points.

Ms. Tranel, an attorney and former Olympic rower who has gained prominence representing ratepayers in legal battles with utilities, faces no challengers in the Democrat primary and, according to her May 22 Federal Elections Commission (FEC) filing, has raised more than $2.34 million.

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11/29/2023

Mr. Zinke, a former Navy SEAL who served in the state Senate from 2009 to 2013, has raised more than $8.1 million in his campaign for a second term. He faces Kalispell pastor Mary Todd in the Republican primary, who ran in 2022 for the seat, garnering less than 10 percent.

While CD1 offers little primary suspense, the preliminary party races in CD2 could provide some late-night suspense as results are counted on June 4, including the prospective return of the Republican who represented Montana in Congress for 12 years before leaving office more than a decade ago.

CD2: From 14 to 2

After Mr. Rosendale, a Freedom Caucus mainstay, announced he wasn’t seeking another term in the House, former Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) entered the race.

“Joe Biden is making America unrecognizable—and I want our country back,” Mr. Rehberg said in a statement. “I am a fifth-generation Montana rancher. I got into public service because I was moved by past generations of Montanans. I want to return to public service because I am worried about future generations of Montanans.”

To return to the chamber, where he served from 2000 until 2012, Mr. Rehberg will need to slip by Montana State Auditor Troy Downing, a former Air Force officer who served two tours in Afghanistan.

In a May 8–9 survey of 410 likely voters by Cygnal for Elect Principled Veterans Fund PAC, Mr. Downey had nearly a 17 percentage point advantage over Mr. Rehberg, 28 percent to 12 percent. None of the other candidates scored more than 8 percent of the tally.

Mr. Downing also has a massive fundraising advantage. According to his campaign’s May 22 FEC filing, he has raised $1.76 million of the $3.47 million raised by all 14 CD2 primary hopefuls.

The rest of the field includes former U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration official Stacy Zinn, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen—who has raised more than $870,000 but only garnered 5 percent in the May 8–9 poll—attorney and former state lawmaker Joel Krautter, former state lawmaker Ric Holden, state Sen. Ken Bogner, and Billings pharmacist Kyle Austin.

As with Republican candidates nationwide, Montana CD2 GOP hopefuls cite the border and immigration, federal spending, and reversing President Biden’s “green energy” initiatives as top priorities.

Mr. Downing highlights his record as state auditor as one of his prime attributes that will translate well in the House. On his campaign website, he notes that he increased access to public lands and promoted agriculture and natural resource development by approving timber sales, oil and gas leases, and agricultural projects that “grow [the state’s] economy and create high-paying jobs.”

He also cites national security and improving Veterans Administration services among his priorities.

There’s little difference in most of their platform planks, although Mr. Rehberg also prioritizes better services and care for the nation’s seniors.

The four Democrats running in the primary, to likely be an overwhelming underdog in November’s general election, are LGBT activist Kevin Hamm; retired pharmaceutical representative Ming Cabrera; writer John Driscoll, a former state lawmaker and public service commission member; and fourth-generation rancher and businessman Steve Held, whose daughter, Rikki, was among the plaintiffs involved in Held v. Montana, a 2020 lawsuit that demanded, under Montana’s Constitution, that a stable climate system is a right.