5 Takeaways From the New York Special Election

As a powerful winter storm bore down on them, voters in New York’s 3rd Congressional District chose a familiar face, Democrat Tom Suozzi, to serve the Long Island and Queens communities once represented by Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) Mr. Suozzi previously held the seat before Mr. Santos defeated him in 2022.

Mr. Suozzi’s opponent, Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip, came out the loser.

“We are fighters. Yes, we lost, but it doesn’t mean we are going to end here,” Ms. Pilip said after the race was called.

The results set the tone ahead of the 2024 general election in November, which could see incumbent Democratic President Biden defending his record against Republican President Donald Trump.

But New York’s 3rd District is an unusually wealthy, urban, and historically Democrat-friendly territory that Mr. Santos first scored in an upset victory. For that reason and others, it might not be the best place to draw broader conclusions about the presidential contest and Congressional map.

A Test Case for Immigration Appeals

The special election results show how voters in at least one part of America responded to the illegal immigration crisis.

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Ms. Pilip, an Ethiopian Jew, is an immigrant from both that country and from Israel, where she met her Ukrainian-American husband and served in the Israel Defense Force. She has not hesitated to make the crisis at the southern border a central theme in her campaign.

Days before the special election, she touted an endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council and voiced concern over a migrant tent city in Queens Village.

But in a Feb. 13 press conference, he voiced opposition to impeaching Homeland Security Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas. Ms. Pilip, by contrast, vowed to support that endeavor. Mr. Mayorkas was impeached later that day.

Democrats’ attempts to tack to the center on mass immigration suggest Republicans have an edge on the issue. But dissatisfaction with the border can’t deliver wins everywhere.

Low Turnout

The Epoch Times’ reporters observed that election-day turnout was abysmal as voters dealt with several inches of snow on the ground. Both campaigns offered rides to voting locations, some of which shut down because of the weather conditions.

Nonetheless, polling places saw empty voting booths. For example, a gym in Woodbury had empty booths stretching to the back of the room.

But some citizens were undeterred by Mother Nature.

“I would never miss it because I really want the person I voted for to win,” Lucia Vivianni, 87, told The Epoch Times. She voted for Ms. Pilip, saying that the candidate would “bring good changes.”

Marianne Schmidt, 73, regretted not voting early.

She told The Epoch Times she had to go to the polls to cast her ballot for Mr. Suozzi because Ms. Pilip is “too much” like Mr. Santos.

House Balance

With Mr. Suozzi’s victory, the narrow GOP majority gets even narrower with 219 members to the 213 Democrats in the chamber. This has ramifications for issues ranging from government funding to foreign assistance, especially for Ukraine and Israel in light of the Senate passing its $95.3 billion package.

House members could deploy a rarely used and seldom successful mechanism called a discharge petition. It would force a House floor vote on a measure if a majority of the lower congressional chamber signs onto the petition, thereby circumventing the Speaker, who controls what gets a vote on the floor.

The GOP cannot afford to lose more than two of its members when it comes to votes along partisan lines–one reason the GOP had to move fast to impeach Mr. Mayorkas on Feb. 13 on a 214-213 vote.

With the addition of Mr. Suozzi, the GOP will have to wait until the late spring to get a little more breathing room. That will likely come with the special elections to replace retiring Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), both of whom represent solidly Republican districts.

The narrower majority is expected to cause bigger headaches for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has come under fire from conservatives for backing measures to fund the government. This could lead to Mr. Johnson to lose the gavel like McCarthy, as it only takes one House member to put forth a motion to vacate. Mr. McCarthy’s ouster led to the House essentially shutting down until a new speaker was picked.

Expect the House GOP to target the district later this year. A rematch between Mr. Suozzi and Ms. Pilip is possible–and, after Republican Lee Zeldin’s strong performance in his losing 2022 gubernatorial bid, it looks tantalizingly like Trump country.

In a Glen Cove press conference, Mr. Suozzi listed immigration, taxes, crime, and public safety among the issues “people care about” in the district. Under other circumstances, those could be strong areas for Republicans.

Yet, Mr. Santos’s expulsion and national notoriety make the special election unique. While Ms. Pilip sought to distance herself from the man she once endorsed, Mr. Suozzi continually tied her to him, repeatedly labeling his opponent “Santos 2.0” in an election day press conference. And Mr. Suozzi also represented the district for six years, improving voters’ familiarity with him.

Ms. Pilip’s background came under scrutiny for non-Santos-related reasons, too. Though she is running as a Republican, she is a registered Democrat.

The Cook Political Report rates the district a Republican toss-up in Congress in 2024.

A Little Win for Biden

Mr. Suozzi’s Tuesday victory could bode well for President Biden ahead of the November general election. At the very least, the outcome suggests that President Trump would not have a cakewalk in New York and other traditionally blue states.

But in the 2022 gubernatorial race, Republican Lee Zeldin beat Ms. Hochul by more than ten points. That, in turn, fueled speculation about whether the more conservative-leaning suburban portions of the district could give Republicans the edge–one that might be seen in similar districts across the country.

That’s broadly in line with a national trend that spells trouble for the GOP up and down the ticket.

Last year, 2023, had the distinction of being Republicans’ worst fundraising year since 2013. While the Republican National Committee, led by Ronna Romney McDaniel, raised just $87.2 million that year, the Democratic National Committee raised $119.9 million.

Yet, President Biden is coping with many negatives, including low approval ratings and, with the release of Robert Hur’s special counsel report, renewed fears over his mental competency.