Abortion Ruling Has ‘Backpedaling’ Arizona Republicans Scrambling

Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake has responded to criticism that her positions on abortion are “all over the map” by staking out prospective legislative terrain that includes a “Baby Bonus” bill.

If elected in November, she vowed to sponsor a bill that gives couples tax cuts when they marry, and further tax cuts for each child, not just child tax credits, but reductions in their rate of taxation.

Ms. Lake said Hungary has such a tax structure. “By the time a mother has four children, she never pays taxes again. That’s called ‘a baby bonus.’ I think we should do that here in America,” she said. “I want to write legislation and vote for policies that will help make that a reality. That is what makes our country great.”

The former Arizona newscaster is up against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) to succeed Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in November. The latest poll—RABA Research’s March 28-31 survey of 503 registered voters—showed Mr. Gallego leading Ms. Lake 36-28 percent with many voters undecided.

Related Stories

“I’m so honored to call President Trump a friend. I’m so honored to have his endorsement and I 100-percent agree with him as a mother and as a woman,” she said. “He did so much to help save babies and in protecting women, bringing down the unconstitutional Roe v. Wade, which people on both sides of the issue admitted was unconstitutional, and allowing we, the people, to decide this issue.”

Court Ruling, Ballot Measure

President Trump’s abortion policy statement was issued one day before the Arizona Supreme Court ruled 4-2 that an 1864 law banning abortion, except to save the life of the mother, is enforceable, doing away with a 2022 law that allows abortions up to 15 weeks.

The law is slated to take effect on April 23 but Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, and Attorney General Kris Mayes say it will not be enforced. There is debate within the state Legislature, which is in session, about repealing the 1864 law, which it did not do when adopting the 2022 15-week ban.

Arizona for Abortion Access, a coalition that includes Arizona’s American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, seized on the Arizona Supreme Court ruling to galvanize supporters to go to the polls, a strategy that has proven a winner for Democrats since 2022’s midterms.

Democrats have good reason to do so. Since the July 2022 repeal of Roe v. Wade, voters have affirmed constitutional amendments protecting abortion access in four states (California, Michigan, Vermont, and Ohio) and denied attempts to restrict access in three states (Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana).

Arizona, which Mr. Biden won by 0.3 percent in 2020, joins Florida, Maryland, and New York state as states where voters will see November 2024 ballot measures to protect or expand abortion rights. President Trump, who won Arizona by 3.5 percent in 2016, is leading Mr. Biden by 5 percentage points in two recent polls.

Efforts to introduce similar measures are underway in seven other states: Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, and Nevada. Like Arizona, Nevada is considered a “battleground state,” where Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom is almost certain to place an abortion rights measure on the November ballot.

“Certainly, the Democrats’ strategy heading into this election cycle was to put these measures on the ballot in every big swing state that they can possibly get them on,” said Phoenix-based GOP strategist Marcus Dell’Artino of FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs.

“As it turns out,” he told The Epoch Times, “Arizona is now going to be no different.”

Advantage: Biden

In the immediate wake of the April 8 state Supreme Court ruling, the Biden campaign announced Vice President Kamala Harris was headed to Tucson, Ariz., for an April 11 “reproductive freedom” rally, that it had purchased a seven-figure media/TV ad buy focusing on abortion access and had billboards highlighting the 1864 law already lining Arizona highways by April 10.

“Kamala Harris coming out here Friday, that decision was announced Tuesday. So I know the Biden-Harris campaign will try to take advantage of it,” said Marson Media CEO Barrett Marion, also a Phoenix-based GOP campaign consultant.

“This certainly will impact a lot of the races and, you know, two days ago, I would have put Arizona as ‘Lean Trump’ and now I think I would put this as ‘Lean Biden,’” he told The Epoch Times. “Trump has only been up by a couple of points in most polls so this isn’t a 30-point swing, but I would say that this now gives advantage to Joe Biden.”

“Certainly, you’ve got to say short-term, this helps the Democrats,” Mr. Dell’Artino agreed. “I think we were seeing an enthusiasm gap here [in Arizona], just like much of [the] country was, for Biden, and I think that this is a shot in the arm for that enthusiasm gap.”

Both concurred that Democrats have successfully positioned abortion as a key 2024 campaign issue and that Ms. Lake’s endorsement of President Trump’s pragmatic approach is not going to overcome past positions on abortion in her race against Mr. Gallego.

“Kari Lake, she was campaigning that she was loved in the territorial law of Arizona and she thought that that would be the best outcome” nationwide, Mr. Dell’Artino said. “And so now, she’s backpedaling off of that.”

“Certainly, the Gallego campaign will try to take advantage of this and Kari Lake, much like Donald Trump, has been all over the map” in her abortion views, Mr. Marson said.

“She has praised both the six-week ban in Texas, and she’s praised the near total ban that the 1864 law is, just during her gubernatorial race two years ago,” he continued. “She’s talked about it being a model for other states. Well, now she says it just should be repealed,” he added.

Ms. Lake appears to be mimicking whatever President Trump says, Mr. Marson said, or—like President Trump—doesn’t want to pick fights that can’t be won in a tight electoral contest that can be won.

“I don’t know how you square that, those positions, without acknowledging that you have had some sort of change of heart or some sort of Epiphany, something like … what happened?” he said. “It’s a pure electoral thing, right? I mean, what happened is, voters probably will support the initiative, right? By 60/40, probably.”

With President Trump issuing his policy, many of his, and Ms. Lake’s, voters may now be inclined to approve the measure, Mr. Marson said. “You know, two days ago, I would have said [it would pass] probably 53 to 55 [percent] to 45 to 47, something like that. Now, I think it’s going to be 60/40.”

While President Trump and Ms. Lake may be able to dodge abortion as a states’ rights issue, state lawmakers—especially Republicans in states where abortion access measures get onto ballots, such as Arizona—cannot.

This does not bode well for Republicans in Arizona’s state house where a hardline conservative cadre within a narrow GOP majority is dictating policies that both campaign consultants said are hurting the party’s prospects among rank-and-file voters.

“There’s very strong potential it could have an impact on our state legislature,” Mr. Dell’Artino said. “We’ve only got a one-seat majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. I know that there are at least a couple of members in each body that are going to be in tight races.

“So if that if that [abortion rights measure] turnout energizes, particularly young ladies, young women, younger voters, man … potentially we have … a new body of the legislature” in 2025, he said.

“This is going to impact races up and down the ballot, everything from Trump-versus-Biden to state and congressional legislative races,” Mr. Marson said. Arizona “Republican legislators who thought they were in quasi-safe seats, someone who maybe had a 10-point advantage, all of a sudden, that might dissipate into something much more competitive.”

Criticisms, Concessions, Calls To Action

President Trump and Ms. Lake have drawn the ire of some conservatives, including Mike Pence, the former vice president and 2024 GOP presidential candidate.

“President Trump is not a Pro-Life candidate,” Lila Rose, founder and president of Live Action, told The Epoch Times in an email. “He’s far less pro-abortion than Biden, but he supports killing some pre-born children and will even make that his position in an attempt to get pro-abortion votes.”

But most anti-abortion groups, including Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, Students for Life, the Faith and Freedom Coalition, the Family Research Council, National Right to Life, and CatholicVote, while reiterating they will still lobby for a nationwide ban, affirmed their support for the former president.

Center For Arizona Policy President Cathi Herrod, without mentioning President Trump or Ms. Lake, said her conservative organization will continue to support Pro-Life objectives.

“Our focus is on protecting as many vulnerable unborn children, and sparing their mothers the harms and hurts of abortion, as we can,” she told The Epoch Times. “So we’re going to continue fighting. The Pro-Life movement is energized, ready to go this election year, and we’re going to keep our focus on what we need to be focused on,” which is defeating the ballot measure and electing Pro-Life candidates, Ms. Herrod said.

Ms. Herrod also offered advice to Republican candidates, not just Ms. Lake in Arizona, but those across the country.

“Republicans need to not be afraid of the abortion issue,” she said. “Arizona voters, by-and-large, their focus, their priority is still going to be on issues like border security, and gas, rent and groceries. Abortion is an issue that will be a campaign issue across the country, but voters are more concerned about border security and the economic cost to their families.”

That’s the message Ms. Lake addressed in her video clarifying her abortion position and vowing to support legislation to support “our greatest institution, which is the family.”

“So many young people are saying, ‘I don’t ever think I could become a mother or father because, heck, I can’t even afford to get by on my own. How would I ever become a parent?’” she said.

“They see the economy faltering. They see crime rising. They’re working two and three jobs, and it’s still not enough to get by,” Ms. Lake continued. “We need to make sure that our economic policies are growing our economy and making our young people prosperous so they can live that American dream, and the American dream means being able to afford to have a family and watch those beautiful children grow.”

Those who want to further restrict abortion, “have the ability at this moment, thanks to President Trump, to be involved in this process, to come up with policies that will work, to help women and save babies,” she said.

It’s a hard issue, Ms. Lake said, and when the Supreme Court kicked abortion regulation to the states, “We knew there would be debate, there would be [an] argument, there would be teeth gnashing, but we’re going to get through this. We are Americans. Heck, we’re Arizonans. We’re some of the toughest people out there. We’re going to work through this and, on the other side, we’re going to come out much better for it.”

It’s all about “saving babies,” she said.

“We, as American people, don’t agree on everything all of the time but if you look at where the population is on this, a full ban on abortion is not where the people are,” Ms. Lake said. “The issue is less about banning abortion and more about saving babies. And we can do that.”

That nuance may come too late for some Republican candidates in Arizona, maybe even Ms. Lake, Mr. Dell’Artino said.

“Republican strategy was to focus on illegal immigration and crime and the economy and high interest rates and inflation, which were certainly some of the top issues in the country, but also in Arizona,” he said.

Now, that message is muted.

“This just sort of flipped it on its head,” he said. “Now we’re in a battle for who’s going to control the number one issue going into the election. Is it going to be access to abortion or is it going to be illegal immigration and the economy?”