‘A new low,’ Gallup says.
A new survey confirms that support for Democrats among blacks and Hispanics is at an all-time low.
In 2023, 66 percent of black adults identified as Democrats or leans-Democrat. Just 19 percent said they identify as Republicans or leans-Republican.
While Democrats continue to dominate Republicans in support among black adults, Gallup said “their current 47-point lead is the smallest” recorded by the polling firm since 1999.
Gallop says, “Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020.”
In 2020, Democrats held the favor of 77 percent of black adults while just 11 percent favored Republicans. Therefore, Gallup’s finding for 2023 reflect an 11-point loss in Democratic affiliation among blacks since 2020 and an eight-point increase for blacks in Republican affiliation.
The survey traced blacks’ “net-Democratic leaned party ID”—the difference between the share of black adults identifying as Democrat or leaning Democrat, versus the share identifying as Republican or leaning Republican. Net support for Democrats among black voters in 2023 sat at 47 percent. In 1999, it was 72 percent. This represents a loss of 25 percentage points.
Gallup’s survey shows that losses are greater for Democrats among Hispanics.
While Democrats held support among 26 percent of Hispanic adults in 2011, support fell to 12 percent in 2023, a deficit of 14 points. This “represents a new low in trends,” Gallup said.
Catalist’s analysis shows that Democrats received 71 percent of the Hispanic vote during the 2016 presidential election. In 2020, that support fell to 63 percent, a loss of eight percentage points.
Among the genders, Gallup said it “has long recorded a sizable difference in the party preferences of women and men.”
While women have consistently identified as or leaned Democratic in sizeable majorities—providing Democrats with an advantage among their category that averages +13 percentage points between 1999 and 2023—men have remained somewhere in the middle or leaned Republican.
However, there has been a notable shift toward the Republican side of the political scale for both groups over the past few years, with the net-Democratic identification among women falling from +17 percent in 2021 to just +9 percent in 2023 and the net-Democratic identification among men sliding from -8 to a record-low of -15.
Gallup’s survey shows that Republicans have the advantage in other groups as well.
While Democrats were on par with Republicans among men (in 2009), and non-college-educated adults (in 2019), Republicans have gained the advantage with both groups.
Among men, 52 percent identify as Republican or lean-Republican. Just 37 percent identify as Democrat or lean-Democrat, a deficit of 15 percentage points.
Among U.S. adults, 43 percent identify as Democrat or lean-Democrat. Slightly more, 45 percent, identify as Republican or lean-Republican.
Republicans also have a one-point advantage for voters over the age of 65, a two-point advantage among those aged 30 to 49, and a 10-point advantage among voters between the ages of 50 and 64.
“Reflecting the national trend,” Gallup noted that “several key subgroups of U.S. adults showed declining Democratic support in 2023, which in most cases meant an increase in the group’s Republican identification and leaning combined with a drop in Democratic identification and leaning.”
While Democrats maintained the advantage among blacks, Hispanics, and young adults in 2023, Gallup said that support is weaker among these groups “than at any point in the past quarter century.” In conclusion, Gallup said the dwindling support among blacks and Hispanic adults “should be especially concerning for the party.”