DeSantis Faces Uphill Climb in New Hampshire, South Carolina

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis defied expectations to claim a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses but now faces long odds in two primary contests that could make or break his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.

Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley are locked in a battle to become the single Republican alternative to President Donald Trump, who won Iowa with 51 percent of the vote.

“In spite of all that they threw at us, we’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa,” Mr. DeSantis said after the caucuses, indicating that Iowa voters had recommended him to the rest of the country as one of the top choices for president.

Yet as the campaign moves to New Hampshire, then South Carolina, the stakes rise for Mr. DeSantis, who trails Ms. Haley by a wide margin in the polls and appears poised to challenge President Trump directly.

Steep Climb in New Hampshire

A CNN/University of New Hampshire survey last week showed President Trump at 39 percent and Ms. Haley at 32 percent, with Mr. Desantis a distant fifth place at 5 percent, trailing former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, both of whom later abandoned the race.

A Jan. 15 poll by American Research Group, Inc., shows President Trump and Ms. Haley tied at 40 percent each, with Mr. DeSantis at just 4 percent.

Ms. Haley has declared the New Hampshire contest a two-person race and has said she will not participate in a planned GOP debate on Jan. 18 unless President Trump agrees to participate.

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The implication is that she would not enter a debate with only Mr. DeSantis. Asked to clarify her intention by CNN’s Dana Bash, Ms. Haley said, referring to President Trump, “That’s who I’m running against. That’s who I want.”

“There is nobody else I need to debate,” she added.

Mr. DeSantis added that he would not “snub the people of New Hampshire” and looked “forward to debating two empty podiums” this week.

Given the outcome in Iowa, where the vote tally on caucus night mostly paralleled pre-caucus polling, Mr. DeSantis appears very unlikely to place second in New Hampshire, where he is polling in the single digits.

Lowering Expectation

Mr. DeSantis entered the presidential race with significant momentum, trailing President Trump by less than 10 percentage points last spring. As his poll numbers fell and eventually plateaued, he has embraced the role of underdog, telling supporters he prefers to campaign from behind.

“I rather be the underdog,” Mr. DeSantis told supporters in Ames, Iowa, on Jan. 11. “I’d rather be in that position. I think if you’re somebody that they’re expecting to run away with it, I don’t know that I run as well there. I think I run very well as the guy that’s working harder than everybody.”

This strategy of lowering expectations could help in New Hampshire, where a third-place finish with 10 or more percent of the vote might appear to be an achievement. That would heighten the stakes for America’s third presidential nominating contest in South Carolina.

South Carolina Knock-Out Strategy

A Jan. 3 Emerson College poll shows Mr. DeSantis trailing by a wide margin in the Palmetto State. President Trump stands at 54 percent, Ms. Haley at 25 percent, and Mr. DeSantis at 5 percent.

Despite those odds, Mr. DeSantis appears to be banking on a strong finish in the Feb. 24 South Carolina primary in an attempt to deliver a knock-out punch to Ms. Haley in her home state.

One clue to that effect is that Mr. DeSantis was scheduled for three campaign stops in South Carolina and just one in New Hampshire, which votes in just seven days. Andrew Romeo, communications director for the DeSantis campaign, offered a hint in a Jan. 16 social media message.

Since 1976, no Republican candidate has failed to win both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries yet gone on to secure the presidential nomination. Only one Democrat in the modern era has done so, Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota, who then lost the general election to President Richard Nixon in 1972.