European Union Predicts Biden-Trump Rematch

Around the globe, world leaders are interested in who U.S. voters will choose as the next president of the United States.

The European Parliamentary Research Service, which prepares reports for the European Union (EU), predicted this month that the U.S. presidential election in November will likely be between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

“Election day will yet again show a U.S. deeply divided over domestic and foreign policy, rather than a united country,” the report reads. “Democrats and Republicans are equally worried about the state of their democracy. But which version of democracy will they vote for?”

Democrats have largely coalesced around President Biden, and President Trump wields much influence over Republicans, commanding a loyal voter base, “despite his four indictments on multiple criminal charges that he deems a ‘witch hunt’. In several states, court cases are pending that seek to disqualify him based on the ‘insurrection clause’ of the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment,” the report reads, adding the U.S. Constitution’s eligibility rules would not prevent a jailed candidate from becoming president, but swing voters may be less likely to support President Trump in that scenario.

Most U.S. voters do not want to see a rematch between these two candidates, the report declares, and if the race does come down them, it is an indication that the U.S. political system is broken.

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The report mentions Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running independent of the parties, as having a “scarce chance” of winning, but his presence on the ballot could siphon votes away from one of the two major candidates, which could make a difference in narrow battleground states.

4 More Years of Biden

Europeans may be surprised at President Biden’s lack of popularity in the United States because 55 percent of Europeans approve of his handling of foreign policy, the report said. President Biden ranks eighth on the global leader approval rating tracker, produced by Morning Consult, a global data company.

Despite having incumbent status and “an impressive legislative record,” the report notes President Biden’s job approval rating dipped at the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and never recovered. His “Bidenomics” messaging, and pitch to grow the economy “from the middle out and the bottom up” lacks buy-in from the public.

Voters view Republicans as better able to guide the economy and the border, where illegal immigration is creating a security concern.

“Biden has spearheaded student debt relief initiatives, and bills on gun safety and on large-scale infrastructure investment, lowering healthcare costs, but voter recognition has been marginal,” the report reads. “However, abortion rights in a post Roe v. Wade world continue to galvanize voters, as the 2023 state elections showed, irrespective of Biden’s low polling.”

The report predicts that a second term for President Biden would provide domestic and foreign policy continuity and predictability. He is likely to continue his traditional approach to diplomacy, “focused on, albeit not always consistently applied, consensus driven cooperation and coordination on global challenges with like-minded allies and partners, including the EU.”

Conversations between the EU and United States would likely continue in a format similar to the recent China/Indo-Pacific, Russia, security and defense, trade and technology summits, and nations would find common ground, even on controversial industrial and trade policies, the report said.

Uncertainty surrounds the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Together, these could stretch U.S. military capabilities, and President Biden could be compelled to “re-balance” transatlantic ties and ask Europe to make bigger efforts for its own security.

4 More Years of Trump

It is worth noting that some people who have never lived in the United States and never intend to can still vote in U.S. elections.

People born overseas to U.S. citizens are themselves considered U.S. citizens and may vote in U.S. elections in some states. The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), passed by Congress in 1986, allows absentee voting by members of the U.S. military and merchant marine; their family members; and U.S. citizens residing outside the United States.

In the past, overseas voters were often called military voters. But members of the military stationed outside the United States are no longer the majority.

In the 2020 general election, there were approximately 27,000 votes through UOCAVA just in Pennsylvania. Approximately 7,000 of those votes were from members of the U.S. military or their family members, while 20,000 of those votes were from other overseas voters. In recent years, Democrats have mounted a campaign to help people in other countries vote from abroad.

The EU report has links to podcasts, White House statements, and many news stories to back up its assessment of the U.S. political landscape. Many links are from NPR, with some from CNN, The Economist, The Heritage Foundation, the Financial Times, and a host of others.

President Trump could bring back Schedule F, an executive order that would make it easier for agency heads to hire and fire federal employees, the report said.

“Only a quarter of federal supervisors are confident that they could remove a poor performer,” the executive order reads. “Career employees in confidential, policy-determining, policy‑making, and policy-advocating positions wield significant influence over Government operations and effectiveness. Agencies need the flexibility to expeditiously remove poorly performing employees from these positions without facing extensive delays or litigation.”

President Biden reversed this policy when his term started.

“Observers argue that the plan to ‘deconstruct the Administrative State’, which would also affect the Department of Justice, would pose a threat to US democracy,” the EU report said of Schedule F, and went on to make other predictions. “Experts expect major shifts in the U.S. approach to allies, international organizations, climate and energy, but some continuity on China.”

The report notes that Republicans reject climate change policies, except when they target China, support fossil fuel industries, and seek to undo President Biden’s green transition bills.

President Trump may be discouraged from trying to pull the United States out of NATO, but he may press NATO members to shift the financial burden to their own countries, and he could diminish the U.S. military in Europe.

“Trump has claimed that he would end the war in Ukraine ‘within 24 hours’ and some assert that his unorthodox relationship with autocratic leaders could lead to a US-Russia ’peace deal‘ on Ukraine and to the end of the U.S.’s ’as long as it takes’ commitment to Ukraine,” the report reads.

The report indicates concern at increasing Republican resistance in Congress to approving more money for Ukraine.