Florida special election nets first pickup for Republicans

Republicans’ slim majority in the House grew a little larger Tuesday after the GOP candidate in Florida’s 6th Congressional District won his special election. Another seat in Florida’s 1st Congressional District is also on the ballot today, and polls in that district have not yet closed.

Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is the winner over Democrat Josh Weil for the seat formerly held by Mike Waltz, who left to become President Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz had won the seat by more than 30 points in November. 

The win bumps Republican numbers in the House up to 219 compared to Democrats’ 213 seats. There are two remaining vacancies in seats that were held by Democrats who died in March. 

The Florida seat drew increased attention as it attracted serious fundraising from Democrats, and after President Trump withdrew Rep. Elise Stefanik’s name from consideration for U.N. ambassador to avoid risking further depleting his party’s already narrow majority.

Who was running to replace Mike Waltz in Florida District 6?

The race to replace former Rep. Mike Waltz, who resigned from his seat in Florida’s 6th Congressional District to become Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, had initially appeared unexpectedly competitive. 

Democrat Josh Weil, a public school teacher, significantly outraised Republican Randy Fine, with Weil raising more than $9 million through mid-March compared to Fine, who brought in less than $1 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. 

The race gained more attention last week when Waltz appeared at the center of a Signal group chat leak, when Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor of The Atlantic, revealed that he was added to a group on the encrypted messaging app and observed as top Trump officials discussed sensitive plans to strike targets in Yemen.

The developments turned outsized focus toward the contest for the seat representing an area on Florida’s eastern coast. And though Republicans were not in danger of losing their majority even if Democrats pulled off upsets in both Florida contests, favorable results for the GOP would give the party more breathing room as it attempts to pass Mr. Trump’s agenda. 

In withdrawing the appointment of Stefanik, a New York Republican who has been among Mr. Trump’s most loyal voices in Congress, the president explained that he didn’t want to risk further depleting the already narrow majority. 

“We don’t want to take any chances,” Mr. Trump said last week in the Oval Office. “It’s as simple as that. It’s basic politics.” 

Who’s running to replace Matt Gaetz in Florida District 1?

The other special election, in Florida’s 1st Congressional District in the state’s Panhandle, will fill the vacancy left by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, whose nomination to be attorney general was derailed by a House Ethics Committee report that alleged sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. Gaetz, who denied any wrongdoing, withdrew his name from consideration, although he had already resigned from Congress. 

The race in the heavily Republican district, which is seen as less competitive, includes Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, and Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun control activist. Patronis had raised $2.1 million as of mid-March compared to Valimont’s nearly $6.5 million, according to FEC filings. 

First elections since Trump’s return to office

The contests, along with an election for Wisconsin Supreme Court also being held on Tuesday, mark the first elections since Mr. Trump returned to office, in races that are being viewed as key tests for the GOP. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, stopped short of predicting that Democrats would flip either seat on Tuesday, but said the attention on the reliably red districts should serve as a warning for Republicans. 

“These are races that should not under ordinary circumstances be on anyone’s political radar,” he said at a news conference last week. “What I can say, almost guarantee, is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly over-perform, which will represent another sign that the Republicans are on the run and that Democrats are going to take back control of the House of Representatives next year.” 

Who can vote in Florida’s special elections? 

Anyone who is registered to vote in Florida’s 6th District and Florida’s 1st District can vote in the races. Florida does not allow same-day voter registration.

Polls closed at 7 p.m. Eastern Time for voters in the 6th Congressional District, and close at 7 p.m. Central Time for voters in the 1st Congressional District.

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