Florida Wins Provide Cushion to Thin House GOP Majority

Republicans’ electoral wins in Florida mean that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is about to get some reinforcements in his narrow House GOP majority, growing the effective Republican majority in the lower chamber by two votes.

In the Sunshine State’s Sixth Congressional District, state Sen. Randy Fine defeated teacher Josh Weil, a Democrat, while Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis defeated Democrat Gai Vailmont in the state’s First Congressional District.

With Fine’s and Patronis’s wins, the House will have 220 Republicans. With two Democratic seats currently vacant, Johnson can now afford to lose three Republicans on party-line votes. The Democrats currently have 213 seats.

This is Republicans’ largest effective majority yet this Congress, though it will likely shrink when current Democratic vacancies are filled.

“Mike Johnson should be relieved that he has [those seats] in his majority so he has a little cushion,” Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told The Epoch Times.

Aaron Dusso, an associate professor of political science at Indiana University–Indianapolis, echoed the sentiment.

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“[Republicans] now have a few votes to play with,” Dusso told The Epoch Times. “It’s still a historically close House, but you can let some of the most reluctant members of the caucus vote against the party and not lose the vote.”

This new breathing room will be key for Johnson as Republicans move to pass President Donald Trump’s agenda through a budget reconciliation bill that would include tax cuts and other agenda items related to energy and border security. It would also raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.

Every vote will count on that measure, where a handful of GOP defections are all but inevitable.

To unlock the reconciliation process, both the House and the Senate must pass an identical budget resolution that instructs relevant committees to put forth provisions that would increase or lower the deficit in a decade.

Reconciliation bills can only relate to taxing, spending, and the national debt.

The narrow House GOP majority has already been a cause for concern among Republicans, including Trump.

This was demonstrated last week when the president withdrew the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be ambassador to the United Nations.

“As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress,” he wrote. “We must be unified to accomplish our Mission, and Elise Stefanik has been a vital part of our efforts from the very beginning,” Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social.

“I have asked Elise, as one of my biggest Allies, to remain in Congress to help me deliver Historic Tax Cuts, GREAT Jobs, Record Economic Growth, a Secure Border, Energy Dominance, Peace Through Strength, and much more, so we can MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat.”

Johnson has talked about the significance of the House GOP majority being narrow.

“And I think everybody understands clearly the mandate that we have, the importance of the moment, and I think they’re going to come and get along.”

The victories in Florida also serve as a positive sign for Republicans’ prospects moving into 2026, where history suggests Democrats will be favored for the House.

Pundits had cast the Florida contests as a referendum on Trump’s second term so far, with some long-shot hopes among Democrats of an upset.