Frustrated by higher prices, an influx of illegal immigrants, and global instability, and unconvinced that an elderly President Biden could fix these problems, voters cleared a path for former President Donald Trump to return to the White House.
Or, concerned about the perceived threat Trump poses to democracy, the rule of law, and abortion rights, voters again rejected his “MAGA” movement at the ballot box, choosing four more years of Biden.
These are currently the most likely outcomes of the next presidential election.
In each case, the result has less to do with each candidate’s strengths than with their opponent’s weaknesses.
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That’s because, according to a batch of recent surveys, the American electorate is miserable — 72% of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
In a collection of polls released over the weekend, he trails Trump 49-47% (Fox News), 47-45% (WSJ), and 48-43% (New York Times/Siena).
Those results all show a tight race.
It’s inside those polls where the bad news for Biden kicks in.
Voters think Biden is too old:
- 62% of voters say Biden lacks the mental soundness to serve effectively as president (Fox).
- 73% of voters say the phrase “too old to run for president” describes Biden well (WSJ).
His second in command, Kamala Harris, fares no better. 58% of voters disapprove of her performance in the latest Fox survey. That includes 30% of Black voters and 22% of Democrats.
Biden’s voters aren’t enthusiastic about him:
With no serious competition in the race, Biden has swept the Democratic primaries. But according to the Times survey, 26% of voters in his party say they’re dissatisfied that he will become the nominee, and 6% are angry about it.
Democratic strategists are skeptical that these groups will remain as supportive of Trump in November as they are now. They say their voters are worried about Biden’s weaknesses today, but will “come back home” when they realize this election is a binary choice between him and Trump.
That theory is supported by electoral history, but if they are wrong, the math for Biden gets very difficult.
Trump’s weaknesses: a support ceiling, legal problems and abortion rights
If Biden’s numbers are so weak, why isn’t Trump’s lead bigger?
Primarily, it’s because Trump brings a lot of baggage to the race.
He also continues to direct money from his fundraising efforts towards his legal bills, at a time when the Biden campaign and the DNC have significant cash advantages over Trump and the RNC.
Most voters support abortion rights:
Polls that ask about Trump’s policies miss an important part of the Democratic platform in 2024 – the fall of Roe v. Wade.
There are also multiple declared third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy, who pulled double-digit support in the latest Fox survey with about eight months to go until the election.
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A “No Labels” candidate could also pull votes from the major parties.
And foreign conflict may play a role. Voters were not thinking much about Ukraine or Israel before the last election, but they are now, and U.S. adversaries like China and Russia also loom over 2024.
There are no guarantees about the shape of this race until November 5.
Trump has a small lead in the race to 270
In the first Power Rankings for this presidential cycle, Trump leads Biden in the electoral college with 251 votes to Biden’s 241.
Eight key battleground states
There are eight battleground states in these rankings: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Keep an eye on Florida, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, Texas and Virginia. These states are somewhat competitive.
Four toss-up states are fiercely competitive
Michigan
Trump pulled off a surprise victory in 2016 in Michigan, but since then, it’s been all blue.
Biden won the state by a 3-point margin in 2020, and two years later, Democrats took full control of the state government for the first time in nearly 40 years.
Speaking of, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will be a strong surrogate for Biden on the campaign trail. She remains popular in her home state and has been an effective Democratic communicator on “MAGA” and abortion.
The GOP also has organizational and down-ballot problems in Michigan; just last week, the party was planning two dueling state conventions to allocate delegates from its presidential primary.
Biden got a taste of his issues with progressives in the state last week with a strong showing for “uncommitted” in the Democratic presidential primary, and he will need to retain support with Detroit and suburban area voters to win.
But this state starts at Lean D.
Minnesota
Biden also starts the election season with an advantage in Minnesota.
The state has gotten closer in recent cycles, mostly because the White working-class and agricultural vote has drifted away from the Democrats.
Biden’s energy and environmental policies will be a contributing factor here.
But Biden won it by a 7-point margin in 2020, making it a tough reach for the GOP.
Minnesota is Lean D.
Trump has a small advantage in two southeastern battlegrounds
Florida, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, Texas, and Virginia are also competitive.
8 months until the general election
Super Tuesday is over, and both candidates are close to becoming their parties’ presumptive nominees, so attention now turns to the general election.
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With 244 days to go until election day, this will be the longest campaign voters have seen in decades.
On Thursday, Biden will deliver the final State of the Union speech of his first term in office. Watch Fox News Channel for live coverage anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
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