Whether Ms. Haley must win the Feb. 24 primary in South Carolina to stay in the race is debatable, experts tell The Epoch Times.
Following a second-place finish in the New Hampshire Primary on Jan. 23, GOP presidential candidate and former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley is moving forward in the race despite the long odds against her.
While former President Donald Trump did not have the knockout punch he was seeking, he won the primary by double-digits, 54.4 percent to Ms. Haley’s 43.3 percent. Of the 21 delegates up for grabs in New Hampshire, President Trump won 12 while Ms. Haley got 9.
Is South Carolina a Must-Win for Haley?
Whether Ms. Haley must win the Feb. 24 primary in South Carolina, where she was governor between 2011 and 2017, to stay in the race is debatable, experts told The Epoch Times.
“Former Ambassador Haley outperformed many of the polls heading into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary,” said Daniel Cronrath, professor in the Government department at Florida State University at Jacksonville.
“Despite this, former President Trump’s resounding double-digit victory over her will make it difficult for her to find traction in the next few primaries,” he said. “This includes the all-important primary in her home state of South Carolina.
“If Haley cannot win in the Palmetto State, then there is little logic in her remaining in the race.”
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David Redlawsk, a political science professor at the University of Delaware, told The Epoch Times that “it seems very unlikely right now that Haley can win” her home state, as New Hampshire “was really her best shot given that independents can vote there.”
Therefore, he said, “I don’t think she has any real way forward to the nomination.”
“I wouldn’t say she has no path forward, though, even if she loses in South Carolina. President Trump’s victories so far are hardly commanding, and Gov. Haley has become more aggressive in criticizing President Trump,” he said.
“Her claim that President Trump is a poor candidate to put against President Biden may have more and more resonance if President Trump can’t consolidate more support in his own party,” he said.
Elizabeth Connors, assistant professor of political science at the University of South Carolina, told The Epoch Times that the GOP sees President Trump as the one who can beat President Biden.
“Negative partisanship and polarization mean many Republicans truly despise Democrats and the Democratic Party (and, of course, Biden) — these types of partisans will back whoever has the best chance of beating the Democrats/Biden, even if they would have chosen someone else to be that person (strategic versus sincere voting),” she wrote in an email.
Haley Moving On to South Carolina
Regardless, Ms. Haley does not appear to be deterred.
“New Hampshire is first in the nation. It’s not last in the nation,” she told enthusiastic supporters at her watch party in Concord, N.H. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina!”
“In the next two months, millions of voters in over twenty states will have their say. We should honor them and allow them to vote,” she added.
The Haley campaign on Jan. 24 released its first two ads in the Palmetto State.
Ahead of the New Hampshire results, the Haley campaign said it is going full steam ahead.
In other words, said Ms. Ankney: “We aren’t going anywhere.”
She went on to note Ms. Haley’s history of pulling off upsets from when she ran in 2004 for the South Carolina state legislature against a long-time incumbent to winning the 2010 gubernatorial race that included overcoming more established candidates in the GOP primary.
Ms. Ankney cited the crucial voting bloc of independents in primaries and that in South Carolina, voters can cast their ballot for a Republican as long as they did not vote in the Democrat primary since there is no voter registration.
Ms. Ankney also noted that Michigan has an open primary and that on Super Tuesday, March 5, all but five of the states have an open primary or semi-open primary. They include Massachusetts, Virginia, Vermont, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas. Those states, she said, have “favorable demographics,” including college-educated voters. The open and semi-open primaries could present opportunities for cross-over and independent voters to cast their ballot for Ms. Haley.
Ten of the 16 Super Tuesday states—such as Virginia, Massachusetts and Vermont—allocate all delegates if the winner has more than 50 percent of the vote. Otherwise if candidates reach a certain threshold, which differs by state, delegates are awarded proportionally.
The other states have varying rules on awarding delegates.
Nonetheless, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) told The Epoch Times the primary is over.
He noted that South Carolina does not have as many independents as New Hampshire, where Ms. Haley performed well among that voter bloc, and therefore, she will fare poorly.
“And at that point, they’ll limp into Super Tuesday, and she simply doesn’t have the resources to compete with Trump and all the different states on Super Tuesday,” he said. “So Trump is going to be the nominee.”
Nevada Not in the Cards and How Long Haley Can Survive
Before South Carolina, Nevada will host a Feb. 6 primary and Feb. 8 caucus. Ms. Haley will not be on the ballot in the caucus, which the state GOP is counting toward awarding delegates despite a state law requiring a primary (a judge ruled that the caucus may be the vehicle to award delegates).
In response to a question on Jan. 21 from The Epoch Times about why she is not participating in the caucus given that it counts whereas the primary does not, Ms. Haley appeared to suggest that the Nevada GOP wanted the caucus to matter because it favors President Trump.
“Talk to the people in Nevada, they will tell you the caucuses have been sealed up, bought, and paid for for a long time. And so that’s why we got into the primary,” she said.
“But we know the caucus is what it is,” she said. “And these are people who are involved in it that tried to stop it. That’s the Trump train rolling through that, but we’re gonna focus on the states that are fair.”
According to Ms. Ankney, the campaign will reevaluate its path forward after Super Tuesday.
“A month in politics is a lifetime. We’re watching democracy in action,” she wrote. “We’re letting the people have a voice. That’s how this is supposed to work.”
Moreover, asked Ms. Ankney, “DO REPUBLICANS WANT TO WIN?”
However, said Ms. Connors, “Even if people don’t individually support [Trump], but they support the Republican Party and/or dislike Biden, at this point they will likely simply toe the line and get behind Trump to achieve their ‘greater goal’ of a Republican presidential win.”
Furthermore, Clemson University political science lecturer Steven Phillips told The Epoch Times, “The critical question for Haley given the upcoming calendar is how long she will stay in the race, and maintain support and donors if she cannot win a state and start to challenge Trump’s delegate lead.”
Haley Says ‘No’ to No Labels, Third-Party Possibility
Were Ms. Haley to not get the GOP nod, she would not run third-party, she says, let alone on a ticket organized by the bipartisan nonprofit advocacy group No Labels.
“I am a Republican through and through. That is what I’m running for. That’s what I’m gonna win is the Republican nomination,” she said in response to a question from The Epoch Times on Jan. 21.
“I’m not interested in No Labels,” she said. “I’ve never been interested in that. That’s not the goal.”
At the end of the day, it would take a miracle for Ms. Haley to pull off an upset, according to Dan McMillan, who has written about politics and history.
“It seems to me that Haley would really have to pull a rabbit out of the hat, slaughter Trump to even have it.”
Lawrence Wilson contributed to this report.
Original News Source Link – Epoch Times
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