Trump, Biden Present Contradictory Picture of Crime in US

PHILADELPHIA—The city known as the cradle of liberty is awash in crime, former President Donald Trump told supporters in Philadelphia on June 22, promising to “bring law and order back to our streets” if reelected in November.

“Crime is out of control,” the former president said. “The City of Brotherly Love is being ravaged by bloodshed and crime.”

The former president, speaking at Temple University on the city’s north side, cited a series of recent violent crimes in Philadelphia and blamed President Joe Biden for recent increases in the crime rate.

The description of Philadelphia as a crime-ridden city echoes comments made by the former president concerning New York City and fits his broader narrative of growing lawlessness in parts of America.

“Maybe you walk down certain streets, you have a 50/50 chance of not ever seeing your home again,” former President Trump said.

President Biden has consistently rebutted the description that the country is plagued by rising crime, saying that America is safe and getting safer thanks to his work.

“My administration is putting more cops on the beat, holding violent criminals accountable, and getting illegal guns off the street—and we are doing it in partnership with communities. As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office,” he said in a June 10 statement.

On the campaign trail, the two leading candidates are painting radically different pictures of the state of public safety in the country, and both present evidence to support their case. However, the truth may not be as simple as either candidate portrays it, as experts have challenged the data underlying both narratives.

Former President Trump frequently cites incidents of violent crimes allegedly committed by illegal immigrants to prove what he sees as a growing danger to the public. At his most recent rally, the 2024 presidential candidate again described several attacks on young women and recognized the family of one victim, Rachel Morin, as guests in the audience.

Ms. Morin, a 37-year-old mother, was murdered while running on a trail in Bel-Air, Maryland, in August 2023. Her accused killer had entered the country illegally from El Salvador and had allegedly murdered before.

Rebutting the conclusion that increasing rates of illegal immigration have resulted in a wave of violent crime, the Marshall Project released an analysis of data in 2019, cross-indexing changes in crime rates in metropolitan areas with changes in the illegal immigrant population over the period between 2007 and 2016. The study concluded that crime rates continued to fall regardless of any increase or decrease in the number of illegal immigrants present.

The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, released a study in 2020 conducted in Texas that concluded illegal immigrants were 31 percent less likely to be convicted of a crime. The study was based on 2018 data.

But while those studies show the majority of illegal immigrants are law-abiding individuals in the United States, reports of graphic crimes in which illegal immigrants are the suspected perpetrator are also deeply concerning to many people.

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) voiced that concern in her response to President Biden’s State of the Union address earlier this year. “Y’all … as a mom, I can’t quit thinking about this. I mean, this could have been my daughter. This could have been yours,” she said.

American Progress

President Biden’s view is that the crime rate has decreased steadily during his administration and that it will continue to fall if he is reelected. He has touted recent statistical reports indicating such a trend.

One such report was issued by the Major City Chiefs Association in May, showing a first-quarter reduction in violent crime in 2024 compared to the previous year. The 2024 report didn’t include statistics from the police departments in New York City or San Jose, California, which were part of the 2023 report.

The report, based on data from 68 of the nation’s metropolitan police departments, indicate a 17 percent reduction in homicide and rape, a 3 percent drop in robbery, and an 8 percent decline in aggravated assault for the period.

“America is making progress against crime—saving lives, and restoring security and peace of mind. We need that progress to continue,” the president said in a May 3 statement.

In June, the FBI Quarterly Uniform Crime Report showed a similar finding—an overall decrease in violent crime in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023.

President Biden took credit for the improvement, saying that violent crime was decreasing to record lows under his watch, whereas murders had increased by a record number during the Trump administration.

Following the Numbers

Crime in the United States is lower now than it was from the 1970s through the 1990s. However there have been spikes in violent crime over the last 15 years under the leadership of both parties.

Violent crime reached a low point in 2011 before rising to its highest level in 2016. After that, the rate went down for three years before spiking again in 2020, alongside demands to “defund the police” and the COVID-19 pandemic. From there, it has consistently fallen. By 2022, it had dipped below the 2019 level.

Former President Trump disputed the accuracy of the FBI statistics, calling them “fake” on June 22.

The former president then said violent crime had risen 43 percent since he left office, according to data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, which he says is a more accurate source.

Some analysts agree that the Uniform Crime Report numbers are not entirely reliable, especially for the years of 2021 and 2022, which showed marked decreases in violent crime.

“The FBI numbers aren’t cooked,” Sean Kennedy told The Epoch Times. “They’re half-baked. It’s not good data going into the process.”

Mr. Kennedy is executive director of the Coalition for Law, Order, and Safety. He said a 2021 change in the FBI’s system of reporting crimes caused a steep dropoff in participation. The new system was more complex, so a number of police departments simply quit reporting.

In 2021, just 63 percent of the nation’s police departments, serving 65 percent of the U.S. population, reported data to the FBI, according to a report from the coalition. In 2019, reports were made from departments serving 97 percent of the population.

However, reporting participation improved again in 2022 when the FBI allowed police departments to use either the simpler or more detailed system to submit reports.

Despite their contrasting descriptions of reality, the two major candidates share some similarities in how to address public safety.

For President Biden, the answer is to stay the course and continue the trend of decreasing crime. “This progress we’re seeing is no accident,” President Biden said on June 10.

He added, “But there is more to do. I will continue fighting for funding for 100,000 additional police officers, and crime prevention and community violence intervention programs. Every American deserves to feel safe in their community—which is why I will continue to invest in public safety.”

Former President Trump believes a significant change is needed, which includes empowering and respecting law enforcement officers, providing additional resources to high-crime areas, and conducting a large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants beginning on his first day in office.

Voters will choose which version of the crime story to accept on Nov. 5.

Austin Alonzo contributed to this report.