Trump Wins Iowa. Now What?

Haley, DeSantis battle for second place and a chance to challenge the commanding frontrunner one-on-one

Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, solidifying his status as the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination and face President Joe Biden in the general election. The outcome was never in doubt. Media outlets declared Trump the winner shortly after the first results were reported, before some caucusesgoers had even cast their votes.

Trump wasted no time declaring victory. “It really is an honor that, minutes after, they’ve announced I’ve won—against very credible competition—great competition, actually,” Trump said. “It is a tremendous thing and a tremendous feeling.”

At the time of his remarks, with just 3 percent of votes counted, Trump led the field with 51 percent of the vote. We don’t yet know the answer to arguably the most compelling questions heading into caucus night: Which of Trump’s rivals will finish second? And does it even matter?

Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who held a small lead over Florida governor Ron DeSantis in the final poll before votes were cast, trailed DeSantis by two points as caucus results came in on Monday evening, with 38-year-old entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy headed for a distant fourth.

Not everyone was thrilled that Trump was declared the winner so quickly. DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo slammed the early call as an “outrageous” example of “election interference” on Trump’s behalf, and several journalists questioned the decision to announce a winner before all the votes had been cast.

For Haley and DeSantis, anything less than a second-place finish marks a significant if not insurmountable blow to their campaigns. This is particularly true of DeSantis, who trails Haley by double digits in the upcoming primary states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Haley, meanwhile, is polling within striking distance of Trump in the Granite State, which holds its primary next Tuesday. Placing second in Iowa could give her enough momentum to make things interesting in a head-to-head matchup with Trump.

Both candidates on Monday sought to manage expectations ahead of the caucuses as temperatures dipped below zero across much of the Hawkeye State. Haley’s campaign touted Trump’s boastful prediction that he would win Iowa by 60 points, presumably in an effort to frame his (inevitably) less impressive victory as a failure.

Team DeSantis presented a similar challenge to Haley, suggesting it was “second place or bust” for the rival candidate. Anything less would be “an embarrassing loss” for Haley, the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down wrote in an email to supporters. DeSantis himself took a shot at Trump on Monday morning, telling supporters at a rally in Sergeant Bluff that “not a lot” of people “who served in [Trump’s] administration are willing to publicly support him.”

Recent polling suggests Haley and DeSantis would beat Biden if the general election were held today—Haley by eight points, DeSantis by three points, according to a CBS News poll published over the weekend. That same poll showed Trump also leading Biden (by two points) in a head-to-head matchup, which will blunt his rivals’ ability to cast themselves as more “electable” ahead of New Hampshire and South Carolina, where Trump is poised to win comfortably absent a significant shift in the dynamics of the race.

Trump ramped up the attacks on his Republican opponents in the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Haley was “a Globalist RINO” who could “never win in the General Election,” while “Ron DeSanctimonious” was “MAGA-Lite” and didn’t have what it takes. Trump’s campaign press secretary slammed Haley as “Joe Biden in a dress.”

The former president continued to roll out high-profile GOP endorsements over the weekend, with Sens. Mike Lee (Utah) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) announcing their support for Trump. The results in Iowa will put pressure on elected Republicans who have yet to endorse a candidate to make their choices known.

Ramaswamy, who is unlikely to continue his campaign after finishing fourth in Iowa, lashed out Monday in anticipation of the disappointing result. He attacked Haley as a “puppet” of “the other side,” and declined to criticize Trump even after the former president told Iowans that “A VOTE FOR VIVEK IS A WASTED VOTE.” In a remarkable display of weakness, Vivek wrote a response to Trump’s comments: “I’ve defended Trump at every step [and] respect him immensely. You won’t hear me attacking him. I’m asking for your vote tonight because I believe it’s the right thing for our country.”