2022 – Pennsylvania Midterm Election Survey – Muhlenberg College

Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
2022 Pennsylvania Midterm Election Survey – September Wave


PDF – Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2022 Pennsylvania Midterm Election Survey – September Wave


Key Findings

  • With the 2022 midterm elections under two months away, Democratic candidates hold leads in the high profile gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania.
  • Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for Governor, holds a substantial lead over Republican nominee State Senator Doug Mastriano in the race to serve as the Commonwealth’s next chief executive. Including voters who are leaning to one candidate, Shapiro holds a 53% to 42% lead over Mastriano.


  • In the race for a U.S. Senate seat representing Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman holds a narrow lead over Republican Mehmet Oz. Fetterman, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, leads Oz by a margin of 49% to 44% among voters leaning to one candidate.


  • In the wake of the loss of one congressional seat, and the redrawing of Pennsylvania’s 17 remaining districts, state voters are split in terms of their intended support for Republican and Democratic candidates in their districts. The survey results find 46% of voters intending to support a Republican in their congressional race, and 45% preferring a Democrat in their district.


  • With reproductive rights taking on a more prominent role in the midterm election cycle following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, a majority (61%) of Pennsylvania voters support abortion being legal in all (29%) or most (32%) cases.


Methodological Statement

The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 420 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between September 13 and 16, 2022. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (126) and cell phones (294). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race, educational attainment and the 2020 election results to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters, both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters’ files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania with individuals who voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections, or who had voted in either the 2022 primary elections or 2021 general election, or if they were a new registrant since the 2020 Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. Open-ended comments were coded into categories by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO), and data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 28.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick, Director of the MCIPO, in conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed, please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at cborick@muhlenberg.edu.


SURVEY INSTRUMENT

Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)                                                                                    

  • Democrat……………………………45%                        
  • Republican…………………………. 45%                                                            
  • Independent …………………………   9%                                                                                
  • Other Party………………………….  1%                                                                                          
  • Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (END SURVEY)
  • Not Sure (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)

Q2: How likely are you to vote in the midterm elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November election?                                     

  • Definitely Going to Vote……………………..84%                                                                                      
  • Very Likely To Vote…………………………16%                                                                                      
  • Not Too Likely to Vote (END SURVEY)
  • Definitely not voting (END SURVEY)
  • Not Sure (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)

Q3: Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections in November, would you say that you are very interested, somewhat interested or not interested at all in the 2022 elections?

  1. Very Interested………………….81%
  2. Somewhat Interested…………16%
  3. Not Interested at All…………… 3%
  4. Not Sure…………………………<1%

Q4: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he is doing his job.

First, President Joe Biden?                                                                 

  • Approve………………………….…43%                                                    
  • Disapprove ………………………52%
  • No opinion (Volunteered)……5%                                                                                            

Q5: Next, Governor Tom Wolf?                                                                 

  • Approve…………………………….45%     
  • Disapprove ………………………45%                                       
  • No opinion (Volunteered)….10%            

Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable.

(NAMES ROTATED RANDOMLY)

First, John Fetterman                                                                    

  • Favorable……………………………44%                                                            
  • Unfavorable …………………………41%                                                
  • Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)…………12%                        
  • Haven’t heard of him (Vol)…….4%                                                                                       

Q7: Next, Mehmet Oz

  • Favorable……………………………29%                                                            
  • Unfavorable…………………………53%                                                
  • Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)…………14%                        
  • Haven’t heard of him (Vol)……5%                                                                  

Q8: Josh Shapiro                                                                        

  • Favorable……………………………49%                                                            
  • Unfavorable…………………………31%                                                
  • Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)…………16%                        
  • Haven’t heard of him (Vol)……4%                                                                                                    

Q9: Doug Mastriano

  • Favorable……………………………31%                                                            
  • Unfavorable…………………………48%                                                
  • Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)…………16%                        
  • Haven’t heard of him (Vol)……5%                                                                                 

Q10: Now, if the 2022 Pennsylvania governor’s election was being held today and the race was between Republican Doug Mastriano and Democrat Josh Shapiro, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)

  • Doug Mastriano (GO TO Q12)………………………41%                                           
  • Josh Shapiro (GO TO Q12)…………………………..52%                                           
  • Neither/Other (Volunteered) (GO TO Q12)……..1%                                           
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………………….….6%                                                                      

Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for Doug Mastriano or Josh Shapiro?
(Asked only of those who answered “Not Sure” in Q 11: N =26)                                                                    

  • Doug Mastriano……………………………23%                                                              
  • Josh Shapiro………………………………. 27%                                                 
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)……………….50%                                                                                            

GOVERNERS RACE WITH LEANERS

  • MASTRIANO…………………42%
  • SHAPIRO……………………. 53%
  • NEITHER/OTHER………….. 1%
  • NOT SURE……………………. 3%

Q12: Now, if the 2022 United States Senate election was being held today and the race was between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)                     

  • John Fetterman (GO TO Q14)………………..48%                                         
  • Mehmet Oz (GO TO Q14) …………………….. 42%                             
  • Neither/Other (Volunteered) (GO TO Q14)……5%                              
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………………………5%                                          

Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for John Fetterman or Mehmet Oz?
(Asked only of those who answered “Not Sure” in Q 13: N =22)                                                                    

  • John Fetterman. ………………………………21%                                      
  • Mehmet Oz ………………………………………33%                                                  
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………46%  

SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS

  • FETTERMAN……………….49%
  • OZ…………………………….44%
  • NEITHER/OTHER…………  5%
  • NOT SURE………………….   2%

Q14:  If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your district? The Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED) 

  • Democrat………………………45%                                                                    
  • Republican……………………..46%                                                                   
  • Neither/Other…………………..2%                                                        
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)…… 8%                                           

Q15:   What issue do you consider the most important in terms of deciding your vote in the midterm election this November? (OPEN ENDED – CODED INTO CATEGORIES)

Economy

22%

Abortion/Reproductive Rights

20%

Inflation

12%

Election Integrity

 5%

Immigration

 4%

Environment/Climate Change

 3%

Women’s Rights

 3%

Honesty/Integrity in Government

 3%

Crime

 3%

Health Care

 3%

Firearms/Guns

 3%

Civil/Human Rights

 2%

Taxes and Fiscal Matters

 2%

Stopping Democrats/Biden

 2%

Stopping Republicans/Trump

 2%

No Particular Issue/Many Issues

 1%

Other Issue/Miscellaneous

 3%

Not Sure

 8%

Q16: Do you think abortion should be:

  • Legal in all cases……… 29%
  • Legal in most cases…….32%
  • Illegal in most cases……21%
  • Illegal in all cases…….. 9%
  • Not Sure (VOL)………… 8%

Q17: Which of these best describes your actions in the 2020 presidential election? Did you vote for (READ LIST):

  • Joe Biden…………………………………………………..47%
  • Donald Trump……………………………………………..46%
  • a candidate other than Biden or Trump…………………3%
  • or did you not vote in the 2020 presidential election……3%
  • Not Sure (VOL)…………………………………………… 1%

Q18: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity?  Are you (READ LIST)?  

  • White/Caucasian………………………80%                                                  
  • African-American………………………8%                                                   
  • Hispanic……………………………………3%                                                                 
  • Latino……………………………………… 1%                                                               
  • Asian…………………………………………2%
  • Native American…………………………1%                                                   
  • Mixed race………………………………… 3%                                                                                             
  • or other…………………………………….. 2%                                                                                         

Q19: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation?  Are you (READ LIST)?

  • Catholic………………………………………28%                                                          
  • Protestant……………………………………28%                                                          
  • Jewish………………………………………..  3%                                                           
  • Muslim……………………………………….  1%                                                          
  • Hindu…………………………………………  1%                                                          
  • Other Religion (Including agnostic)……30%                     
  • or Atheist……………………………………..  6%                                                          
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………3%                                              

Q20: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)                                     

  • Less than High School………………………..2%                                             
  • High School Graduate…………………….22%                                             
  • Some College or Technical School……28%                                 
  • College graduate (4 yr only)…………….27%                                 
  • Graduate or professional degree……….21%                                                                       

Q21: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?                         

  • Under $20,000………………………………..  8%                                                          
  • $20,000-$40,000………………………………18%                                                         
  • $40,000-$60,000………………………………16%                                                         
  • $60,000-$80,000………………………………15%                                                         
  • $80,000-$100,000…………………………….12%                                                           
  • Over $100,000……………………………….. 26%                                                         
  • Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………….5%                                               

Q22: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)?

  • 18-34………………………………………….19%                                                         
  • 35-50………………………………………….25%
  • 51-64………………………………………….29%                                             
  • 65- and over…………………………………..28%                                                                              

Q23:  Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)

  • Male…………………………………………………………49%
  • Female………………………………………………………51%
  • Transgender Male……………………………………..0%
  • Transgender Female…………………………………0%
  • Or you do not identify as male, female or transgender…<1%

SELECTED CROSSTABS

Pennsylvania Governor

 

Mastriano

Shapiro

Neither/Other

Not Sure

Democrat

5%

94%

1%

1%

Republican

76%

17%

2%

5%

Independent

45%

45%

3%

8%

No College Degree

52%

44%

1%

3%

College Degree

32%

64%

2%

3%

Male

43%

51%

2%

4%

Female

41%

55%

1%

2%

18-34

33%

60%

4%

4%

35-50

38%

59%

0%

3%

51-64

44%

52%

2%

3%

65 and Over

50%

46%

1%

3%

United States Senate

 

Fetterman

Oz

Neither/Other

Not Sure

Democrat

89%

6%

3%

2%

Republican

12%

81%

5%

2%

Independent

49%

39%

8%

5%

No College Degree

40%

52%

6%

2%

College Degree

59%

35%

3%

3%

Male

47%

45%

5%

3%

Female

51%

43%

4%

2%

18-34

56%

30%

10%

4%

35-50

55%

40%

3%

3%

51-64

50%

45%

3%

1%

65 and Over

40%

54%

3%

3%

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