THE BUZZ: With the outcomes of 2022 ballot initiatives looking predictable, we’re ready to start contemplating 2024.
We’re certainly not alone. While millions of California voters are yet to vote on this cycle’s seven statewide initiatives, the next slate of citizen democracy has already begun to take shape. The laws passed by this Legislature, the signature-gathering efforts that fell short in the last couple of years, and the outcome of the impending vote will reverberate into the next cycle.
Much of the drama around the 2022 ballot has dissipated. Polling indicates voters will enshrine abortion rights in the constitution, uphold a flavored tobacco ban, reject two sports gambling initiatives and rebuff a third consecutive dialysis regulation proposal. A measure to dedicate funding to arts and music education has drawn millions in support and no formal opposition. Proposition 30’s tax increase to fund electric vehicle infrastructure looks like the truly contested measure, even as it slips in the polls.
But the intrigue around 2024 is ramping up. An oil industry group announced yesterday that it had raised more than $8 million for a referendum overturning California’s new law requiring new wells to be set back from homes and schools. A franchise restaurant group has channeled millions toward having voters reverse a new law creating an industry workplace regulator. Both efforts would spur enormous spending if they qualify (we’ll know in December).
Leftovers from this cycle are already set to land on voters’ plates. Already qualified for 2024: measures to boost California’s minimum wage to $18 an hour; to fund pandemic detection by taxing the rich; and to nullify a law (PAGA) enabling private lawsuits for labor violations. We’ll know soon if a business coalition’s effort to raise the bar for new taxes had enough support to qualify for 2024.
All of that will inform the Legislature’s work next session, which will in turn affect the 2024 ballot. Maybe the prospect of a pricey PAGA fight will spur a deal in Sacramento that gets the initiative off the ballot. The expensive failure of both sports betting measures could give players like tribes, platforms and card rooms an incentive to forge a legislative compromise – although the product would still need to go before voters. Dialysis firm DaVita has boosted legislative candidates with $3.8 million worth of independent expenditures this cycle, a 22-fold increase from last time. Perhaps a dialysis deal could avert a fourth ballot fight.
If you haven’t filled out your ballot already, you should. Civic engagement matters! Just know that the next round is coalescing even before your vote is counted.
BUENOS DÍAS, good Friday morning. Another big campaign weekend looms, headlined by a Sunday debate between Gov. Gavin Newsom and state Sen. Brian Dahle. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is swinging through Irvine this weekend in an effort to turn out young voters in critical Orange County. And Sen. Alex Padilla is stumping for frontline House candidate and Assembly Member Rudy Salas.
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QUOTE OF THE DAY: “This is a horrible job right now. Whoever the next mayor is, it’s basically like leading England after World War II.” LA-based Democratic strategist Mathew Littman on what awaits the city’s next mayor, via Politico.
TWEET OF THE DAY:
WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced
LA LAMENT — Welcome to Los Angeles, where political careers go to die, by POLITICO’s Alexander Nieves and David Siders: A racism scandal engulfing LA City Hall is a reminder of the political morass that awaits its next mayor. But it also points to a more enduring reality: The nation’s second most-populous city has become a graveyard for rising Democrats’ political careers.
TOWN HALL — “Angelenos call for resignations and reforms at town hall on racist audio leak,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Grace Toohey and Jeong Park: “After the leaked recordings of racist comments from some of Los Angeles’ most powerful Latino leaders upended the city over the last two weeks, it was clear healing wasn’t going to come during Thursday night’s hourlong town hall.”
— “San Francisco will end its state of emergency for monkeypox this month,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Annie Vainshtein: “San Francisco’s monkeypox public health emergency will officially end on Oct. 31, city health officials said Thursday. The change comes nearly three months after the emergency declaration was announced.”
— “Black developers refuse to work with De León on $1.6-billion Angels Landing project,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Roger Vincent: “Black real estate developers behind the proposed $1.6-billion Angels Landing project in downtown Los Angeles said that they refuse to continue working with City Councilman Kevin De León, in light of the secretly taped racist conversation he took part in, saying they now fear he holds a racial bias against them and has been stalling city approvals.”
OVERLOOKED — “This is California’s most fiercely contested political turf,” by CalMatters’ Ben Christopher and Ariel Gans: “The irony of this sudden surge of outside attention on an area so often overshadowed and beset by so many problems is not lost on some residents.”
CASH TRACK — “L.A. mayoral, California House races soak up money and attention,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Seema Mehta and Taryn Luna: “More than $1 billion so far has been poured into California races — but with less than three weeks to go before voting ends, candidates for governor and U.S. Senate haven’t aired a single general-election ad that touts their campaigns.”
— “L.A. council candidate pays two workers about half the amount owed in wage theft cases,” by the Los Angeles Times’ David Zahniser: “On Tuesday, [Danielle] Sandoval provided an update on that effort, telling supporters in a video that some payments have now been made. But those workers did not receive the full amount that state labor officials had been trying to collect.”
HIGH HOPES — “Gavin Newsom pledged to end chronic homelessness as SF mayor. It remains his biggest challenge,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Maggie Angst: “Homelessness has cast a long shadow across Newsom’s quarter-century in California politics. Throughout his rise from San Francisco supervisor to the state’s highest office, he has overseen the spending of billions in tax dollars, along with his own political capital, in attempts to show progress.”
— “Ex-UCLA gynecologist James Heaps guilty of sexually abusing patients,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Richard Winton: “A Los Angeles County jury on Thursday found former UCLA gynecologist Dr. James Heaps guilty of sexually abusing female patients during his tenure at the university.”
MORE FROM THE TAPES — “In Los Angeles, Politics Are More Complex Than a Racist Recording Indicates,” by the New York Times’ Corina Knoll, Shawn Hubler and Miriam Jordan: “Decades of political decisions and deals have resulted in the current composition of the City Council, where white and Black leaders hold more seats than demographics might suggest.”
— “Bay Area sees ‘eviction tsunami’ as pandemic renter protections end,” by the Mercury News’ Ethan Varian: “Evictions are soaring since state and local pandemic protections lapsed over the past year, with cases across the core five-county Bay Area more than doubling, according to a Bay Area News Group analysis of court data.”
EMISSION MISSION — “California’s greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2021, new data says. Here’s how it happened,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Yoohyun Jung: “California has ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of its climate action plan, but emissions by large facilities, such as power plants and refineries, went up in 2021 compared with the year before.”
— “Is there really a COVID ‘nightmare variant’ spreading? Here’s what experts say,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Aidin Vaziri: “While the United States contends with the newly detected COVID omicron BQ.1 subvariants, another highly mutated strain of the coronavirus called XBB is tearing across Southeast Asia, where in some countries, it has caused the number of cases to double in a day.”
— “What to know about California’s ‘builders remedy’ — and how it could explode housing development in S.F,” Opines Kevin Burke for the San Francisco Chronicle: “Cities in California have long insisted that they take the state’s housing crisis seriously and that they know best where new housing should go. This year, they actually have to prove it.”
— “Changes coming to Sacramento City Council could include majority-women council, more people of color,” by CapRadio’s Kristin Lam: “Since 1849, Sacramento has only ever seen a majority-women City Council once: from 1989 to 1992. That could change after the November election, when voters have the chance to elect a wave of candidates who are female, people of color and younger than outgoing council members.”
— Biden world privately thinks McCarthy could fold on Ukraine aid, by POLITICO’s Andrew Desiderio and Jonathan Lemire: The GOP’s internal rift over how long to keep U.S. aid flowing to war-ravaged Ukraine is spilling into public view weeks before a midterm election that could hand the party full control of Congress.
ABSENT AT THE RALLY — “With Crucial Elections Looming, Biden Breaks Tradition of Big Campaign Rallies,” by the New York Times’ Michael D. Shear, Katie Glueck and Lisa Lerer: “Mr. Biden has not held a campaign rally since before Labor Day, even as the future of his agenda and his own political career are at stake in the midterm elections.”
HOW TO SAVE $800M — “Documents detail plans to gut Twitter’s workforce,” by the Washington Post’s Elizabeth Dwoskin, Faiz Siddiqui, Gerrit De Vynck and Jeremy B. Merrill: “Twitter’s workforce is likely to be hit with massive cuts in the coming months, no matter who owns the company, interviews and documents obtained by The Washington Post show.”
— “Elon Musk’s Starlink Is at the Forefront of a Corporatized Space War in Ukraine,” by Bloomberg’s Ashlee Vance: “When Russia invaded Ukraine, Starlink exhibited an unexpected power over global politics. The Russian military’s initial offensive focused on destroying communications systems throughout the country.”
GAS SCARE — “Researchers Find Benzene and Other Dangers in Gas Piped to California Homes,” by the New York Times’ Elena Shao.
— “The Pacific Ocean in the Bay Area’s backyard is a rare wildlife ‘hot spot.’ Here’s what scientists are seeing,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Tara Duggan.
— “Gimme Shelter: How L.A. became the nation’s most housing-overcrowded place,” by CalMatters’ Manuela Tobias.
AND THEN MORE — “Angelenos React To Councilmember Kevin De León’s Decision To Stay. ‘I Don’t Think He’s Reading The Room,’” by LAist’s Elly Yu.
— “3 Years After A Driver Killed A Young Girl, Koreatown Residents Are Still Waiting For New Traffic Lights,” by LAist’s Ryan Fonseca.
Hope Hicks … The Washington Post’s Taylor Lorenz … Jordan Hoffner
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