The midterm elections in 2022 will have a significant influence on the presidential election in 2024. Republican gains were considerably lower than expected, and while they appear poised to take control of the House while Senate control remains in doubt, there are certain implications for 2024 that are unlikely to alter when the final votes are tabulated.
Here are a few examples.
First, consider the influence on the Democratic primary. If Democrats suffered a huge defeat, President Biden would have been under great pressure to step down in favor of a new face. Instead, the president must now make a decision, and the midterm election results will almost certainly dispel whatever misgivings he may have had about running for reelection.
The effect on the Republican campaign is significantly larger. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ stunning reelection victory was the main story of the 2022 election. He received 57% of the Hispanic vote and swept traditionally Democratic Miami-Dade County. His performance will persuade many Republicans that he is their strongest presidential contender in 2024, and it is difficult to suppose that he will not run. “There is a tide in the affairs of mankind, which, caught at the flood, flows on to fortune,” Brutus states in Julius Caesar. It’s high tide for Ron DeSantis, and if he loses his chance, he might not have another.
In contrast, the 2022 elections have damaged Donald Trump’s position. Overall, his hand-picked candidates fared poorly, and this might be the second election in a row that his involvement in Republican primaries lost his party a Senate majority.J.D. Vance did win the vacant Senate seat in deep-red Ohio, but he trailed Republican governor Mike DeWine by a surprising 9 points. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz was defeated by John Fetterman, while Herschel Walker is lagging Raphael Warnock in Georgia. (Neither Georgia contender achieved 50% of the vote, and the race may well go to a runoff in December.
This gets me to my final point: Democrats fared well in the gubernatorial races that will determine how the presidential elections in 2024 are conducted. Democratic incumbents hung on in Michigan and Wisconsin, but Josh Shapiro easily won in Pennsylvania. Yes, Republican incumbent Brian Kemp easily defeated Stacey Abrams in a repeat of their 2018 contest, but he has previously demonstrated that he can defy Donald Trump’s push to skew election results. This leaves Arizona, where Kari Lake’s come-from-behind victory might lead to a fiercely disputed conclusion in 2024 if the presidential vote narrowly favors the Democratic nominee, as it did in 2020.
To summarize, the midterm elections have set the stage for a titanic battle for the Republican nomination between Trump and DeSantis, and they have increased the likelihood that the finalist of this contest will face an incumbent Democratic president who has managed to avoid a devastating challenge to his re-election.