2024 Senate map is a GOP dream. But candidate strength is unsettled. – The Washington Post

The emerging landscape points to potential decisions on the horizon about if and how to intervene in battleground contests. Democrats are defending a 51-49 majority in 2024 and will be trying to safeguard far more endangered seats than the GOP.

In Arizona, an emerging battleground, defeated gubernatorial candidate and former TV newscaster Kari Lake is considering running for the Senate seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, according to a person familiar with the discussions who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations candidly. And Blake Masters, the venture capitalist who lost the Senate race to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in November, told The Washington Post he is also “seriously” weighing another bid — setting up a scenario where a candidate who underperformed could again clinch the nomination in the swing state.

Both Masters and Lake were endorsed by Trump in their primaries, and the latter was a prominent election denier who championed the former president’s false claims of a stolen election in 2020. Lake is also seeking to reverse the outcome of her 2022 loss.

Senate Democrats had a good 2022. The 2024 election could be brutal.

In Montana, another GOP pickup opportunity, national Republicans have said they think Rep. Matthew M. Rosendale (R) could end up running for the Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Tester. Rosendale, who burnished his anti-establishment credentials by refusing to vote for Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) along with other holdouts this month, lost to Tester in the red state in 2018 after Tester branded him a carpetbagger with the moniker “Maryland Matt.” A Rosendale spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment.

And in Indiana, the Republican primary for departing GOP Sen. Mike Braun’s seat could shape up as a MAGA vs. establishment showdown, after Rep. Jim Banks (R) announced his intention to run and the conservative PAC Club for Growth warned former governor Mitch Daniels, an establishment favorite, against jumping into the race in an ad buy suggesting he is past his prime. Donald Trump Jr. also repeatedly insulted Daniels on Twitter. Few national Republicans doubt Banks’s ability to win in the deep red state, but a Banks-Daniels faceoff could make for a messy primary fight that could amplify GOP divisions.

“It’s going to be very important for leadership to try and get electable candidates the nomination,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and former spokesman for the Republican National Committee. “The challenge is how much of that can you really direct from Washington? That’s a hard thing to do.”

Several Democratic-held seats in battleground states such as Arizona are also up in 2024, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, where Republicans would have a better chance of unseating Democrats if they fielded Republicans who could appeal to independents — not just the conservative base. In Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, Republicans could face Democratic incumbents who have shown survival skills, suggesting a need for candidates who can also appeal to the political middle.

Some Republicans who fit that mold are also weighing runs, including Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia, who has floated his interest publicly as Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III decides whether he will run again, and David McCormick in Pennsylvania, whom Trump blasted as the “candidate of special interests and globalists” when he was running against Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary. Matt Dolan, a moderate who lost the Ohio GOP Senate primary last time, has declared his intention to challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) attributed Republicans’ underwhelming midterm performance in Arizona, New Hampshire and Georgia to subpar candidates and blamed Trump for backing unelectable candidates in primaries.

“Now, hopefully, in the next cycle we’ll have quality candidates everywhere and a better outcome,” he said after the elections.

The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund PAC, which spent more money than any other outside GOP group last cycle, did intervene in some primary contests in 2022. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee stayed neutral, limiting the national party leadership’s influence.

The new chair of the NRSC, Sen. Steve Daines (Mont.), has signaled openness to wading into Republican primaries this time around.

“Republicans are sick of losing, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to win,” he told Fox News last month. “We want to make sure we have candidates that can win general elections.”

He’s also focusing on recruiting promising candidates to jump in.

“Recruitment is a top priority for the NRSC this cycle,” said NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg. “We are thrilled that so many top-tier candidates are already either launching their campaigns or seriously considering running.”

One Republican operative said he thought outside GOP groups and the party would be less influenced by Trump’s endorsements this time around, and more willing to face off against the former president in primaries if he endorses someone seen as unelectable. “The view was Trump’s endorsement was so decisive you had to accept the impact of it,” the operative said. “His impact is not the same as it once was.”

If alternatives to those candidates flounder, however, or decide not to run in certain states, it’s unclear how the committee will make the decision to intervene. In the past, national Republicans have tended to stay out of primaries in red states like Indiana, unless polling suggests that a candidate is so flawed he or she could make even a safe seat competitive.

Scott Jennings, a Republican political consultant and former McConnell political aide, said he thinks having the national party apparatus actively working against unelectable candidates would be an improvement. But it’s ultimately up to Republican primary voters to decide to be more strategic after last cycle’s losses.

“They say there’s no education in the second kick of a mule,” he said. “I guess we’re probably on our third or fourth kick at this point, so we’ll see.”

In a red state like Montana, where a potential candidate like Rosendale is not seen as a lock against Tester, it’s unclear how or whether national Republicans would weigh in — and how effective it would be if they did.

The challenge will be especially vital in battleground states like Arizona, where harder-right candidates may struggle to draw independent voters.

Lake, the former television news anchor and Trump acolyte who made election denialism the centerpiece of her campaign, lost her bid for Arizona governor in November by more than 17,000 votes.

She has so far unsuccessfully sought to reverse the results in court and has also been sizing up a potential 2024 Senate race, said a person familiar with Lake’s conversations. Lake won’t make a decision until her court case is officially over, this person said.

“It is true that dozens of people have reached out to Kari suggesting she run for U.S. Senate,” said a statement Tuesday from her operation’s Twitter account.

Lake has talked to supporters, consultants and even other potential candidates, including Mark Lamb, the Republican sheriff of Pinal County who dons Western wear and appears regularly on conservative media. The two spoke about the race over dinner recently at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, people familiar with their talk said.

Lamb is “seriously considering running for the United States Senate in 2024,” said his political spokesperson Corey Vale in a statement. He and his wife “are praying about this next step and will make a decision in early 2023.”

Another prospect: Masters, who also denied the 2020 election results and had millions of dollars in help from technology billionaire Peter Thiel, his friend and mentor. He lost to Kelly by five percentage points, and unlike Lake, conceded.

“It’s something that I’m thinking about seriously,” he told The Post.

Karrin Taylor Robson, a more establishment-friendly Republican who lost the 2022 primary to Lake, is also hearing from supporters who are urging her to run, she said. She said Arizona deserved “much better representation” than what it’s getting from its two current senators.

“I am keeping my options open and deciding how I can best serve the people of Arizona,” she said in a statement.

Former GOP governor Doug Ducey, an establishment favorite who declined to run for the Senate last time around, has not changed his mind on the matter, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

The Senate race in Arizona is an important one for Republicans because Sinema, an independent who mostly votes with Democrats, will probably also face off against a Democrat if she chooses to run again — potentially splitting the liberal vote in a three-way race. But an extreme candidate could still lose, and it’s far from a done deal that the race will be a three-way contest, given Sinema has not yet announced her plans.

“Republicans have got to get back to those basics and run a candidate who can bring the party back together instead of alienate a segment of the party that we’ve seen can make or break a candidate’s general election race,” said Lorna Romero, a GOP political strategist.

Isaac Arnsdorf contributed to this report.