WASHINGTON — If it’s Tuesday … A Texas sheriff opens a criminal investigation into migrants flown to Martha’s Vineyard. … Hurricane Fiona strengthens into a Category 3 storm after pounding Puerto Rico. … President Biden heads to a NYC fundraiser ahead of tomorrow’s U.N. General Assembly address. … VP Harris delivers remarks at fall convocation at South Carolina State University. … GOP loyalty to Trump over party hits new low in NBC News poll. … The poll also finds Democrats’ midterm message outperforming the GOP message. … And remembering political journalism pioneer Bob Balkin.
But first: National Democrats have a new political boogeyman outside of Donald Trump.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Yet the party isn’t putting its money where its mouth is — given that DeSantis is up for re-election seven weeks from now, and that the Democrat who’s running against him is facing a significant cash deficit.
As of today, DeSantis, his affiliated committees and the state GOP have spent approximately $30 million over the airwaves in Florida’s race for governor, while Democratic nominee Charlie Crist and similar allies have spent $7.1 million.
That’s more than a 4-to-1 advantage for DeSantis, per AdImpact.
And since last month’s Florida primary when Crist became the nominee, the disparity has been even greater: Team DeSantis has outspent Crist, $19 million to $1.4 million
That’s more than a 13-to-1 advantage.
Yes, Florida is an expensive state. Yes, DeSantis spent the last three years building an impressive war chest.
But in a political world where Democrats haven’t had much trouble raising money, where they have plenty of wealthy donors and where Florida remains a competitive battleground state, that spending difference is jaw-dropping.
Especially with all the Democratic outrage directed at DeSantis.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 33%
That’s the share of Republican and Republican leaning voters in the new NBC News poll who consider themselves loyal to former President Donald Trump over the Republican Party, with 58% saying they are primarily supporters of the Republican Party.
That’s the lowest share of voters prioritizing Trump over the party since NBC began polling the question back in 2019, and down from the increase seen in the August poll, conducted shortly after the FBI searched Trump’s Mar-a-Lago.
The poll also found that 56% of registered voters want the investigations into Trump to continue.
Read more on the Meet the Press Blog.
Other numbers to know:
$2.3 million: How much Rick Caruso has reserved in airtime on average each week through Election Day in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, per AdImpact.
7.6: The magnitude of an earthquake that struck Mexico on Monday.
55: How many Russian warplanes Ukraine has shot down since the war began in February, per a U.S. general quoted by Politico.
Almost 1,000: That’s how many uncounted prison deaths in 2021 were uncovered by a new Senate investigation being unveiled today, per NBC News’ Julie Tsirkin.
1.7%: The percentage increase in border encounters in August compared to July, U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced Monday, per NBC News’ Julia Ansley.
15,000-18,000: The seven-day daily average for adults who received their first Covid shots in late August, per a Wall Street Journal analysis.
20 quadrillion: Scientists’ estimate of how many ants there are on Earth.
Midterm roundup: Dems hit Senate airwaves
Senate candidates and outside groups are continuing to spend on the airwaves, and Democrats ramped up their spending in two key races on Monday. The new spending comes as GOP outside groups continue to drop millions on the Senate airwaves.
In New Hampshire, the Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, reserved nearly $3.7 million on ads, per AdImpact, with ads starting next week.
And in Ohio, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee teamed up with Rep. Tim Ryan for a joint $739,000 ad buy, starting today. The buy is the first joint spending of the election cycle.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Arizona Senate: Puck News reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is holding a fundraiser Wednesday with Arizona Republican Blake Masters weeks after his allied super PAC announced it was shifting resources from the state.
Georgia Senate: Republican Herschel Walker is lowering expectations for his debate next month against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, telling the Savannah Morning News, “I’m a country boy. I’m not that smart. He’s a preacher. [Warnock] is smart and wears these nice suits. So, he is going to show up and embarrass me at the debate Oct. 14th, and I’m just waiting to show up and I will do my best.”
A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Walker leading Warnock, 46%-44%, though that’s within the poll’s margin of error.
Iowa Senate: A former staffer for Democratic Senate candidate Mike Franken accused him of “kissing her on the mouth without her permission in an incident report filed with the Des Moines Police Department,” per the Des Moines Register. Franken denied the allegation, telling the newspaper, “It didn’t happen.”
Pennsylvania Senate: The GOP Senate Leadership Fund is up with a new ad that hits John Fetterman on pardons and crime. Fetterman supports removing the mandatory life sentence for people who commit a felony that leads to death.
Texas Senate: GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson is considering running for Senate in 2026, when GOP Sen. John Cornyn is up for re-election, the Texas Tribune reports.
Georgia Governor: Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 50%-42% in that new AJC poll. In a new interview, Abrams told The 19th she welcomes President Biden and Vice President Harris to the campaign trail with her, and she criticized comparing her refusal to concede in 2018 with how Republicans and Trump acted after the 2020 election.
Maryland Governor: A Goucher College poll released Monday found Democrat Wes Moore with a sizable lead over Republican Dan Cox, 53% to 31%.
Wisconsin Governor: A new ad in Wisconsin criticizes Republican nominee Tim Michels over sexual harassment and assault complaints filed against his company in the past. In a statement, Michels’ company said it investigates all allegations.
And a Republican outside group is up with a new spot hitting Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ administration for releasing inmates who committed violent crimes early.
Ad watch: Smiley launches crime ad
Republican Tiffany Smiley is launching a new TV ad tying Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., to crime in Seattle — in the latest sign that Republicans view crime as a salient campaign issue.
Smiley, a nurse and veterans advocate, stands in front of a shuttered Starbucks in the 30-second ad, shared first with NBC News. The spot will be running statewide as part of a six-figure buy, per Smiley’s campaign.
“These doors are closed because it’s too dangerous to ask employees to work here anymore. Think about that,” Smiley says as headlines of the Starbucks closures flash on screen.
“For decades Patty Murray has spearheaded reckless policies that lead to shortages, inflation, and so much crime that you can’t even get a cup of coffee from the hometown shop on Capitol Hill, even if you could still afford it,” Smiley adds.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
The New York Times reports that Trump’s former White House lawyer warned him during a late 2021 meeting that the former president could face legal consequences if he didn’t return government documents.
NBC News confirms that a legal group representing some of the migrants who were sent to Martha’s Vineyard last week say they were tricked by a misleading brochure promising assistance in Massachusetts.